{"id":18507,"date":"2024-01-23T12:00:00","date_gmt":"2024-01-23T12:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/reinvantage-dev.eonserver.com\/?p=18507"},"modified":"2024-01-23T12:00:00","modified_gmt":"2024-01-23T12:00:00","slug":"serbias-vucic-speaks-loudly-but-carries-a-small-stick","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/reinvantage-dev.eonserver.com\/?p=18507","title":{"rendered":"Serbia\u2019s Vu\u010di\u0107 speaks loudly but carries a small stick"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><strong>Prime Minister Albin Kurti, who needs to maintain public calm, should not casually talk about a potential war against Serbia. This only heightens internal tension in Kosovo when there is no reason to assume that war will break out.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>A couple of months ago, in an interview with Al Jazeera, Kosovo\u2019s Prime Minister Albin Kurti claimed that the September attack on Kosovo police by Serbian gunmen in northern Kosovo was planned by Serbian President Aleksandar Vu\u010di\u0107 in an effort \u201cto destabilise\u201d Kosovo in the hopes of starting a war. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Such a statement does not serve the public\u2019s interest well or produce political or strategic gains for him. Not only that, Serbia&#8217;s President Aleksandar Vu\u010di\u0107 has nothing to gain by waging a war against Kosovo; he stands only to be humiliated by NATO, which is committed to Kosovo\u2019s national security.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-text-color has-background has-cyan-bluish-gray-background-color has-cyan-bluish-gray-color is-style-wide\"\/>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li><a href=\"https:\/\/emerging-europe.com\/news\/lots-of-carrot-plenty-of-stick-the-eus-new-growth-plan-for-the-western-balkans\/\">Lots of carrot, plenty of stick: The EU\u2019s new growth plan for the Western Balkans<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/emerging-europe.com\/voices\/kurti-and-vucic-the-odd-couple-who-made-oddity-a-science\/\">Kurti and Vu\u010di\u0107: The odd couple who made oddity a science<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/emerging-europe.com\/news\/a-booming-ict-sector-is-helping-kosovo-maintain-solid-growth-levels\/\">A booming ICT sector is helping Kosovo maintain solid growth levels<\/a><\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-text-color has-background has-cyan-bluish-gray-background-color has-cyan-bluish-gray-color is-style-wide\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p>Whereas Vu\u010di\u0107 continues to placate Putin, he values Serbia\u2019s relationship with the US and would not undertake such a reckless act. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>As he recently stated, \u201cFor us, it is of the utmost importance that peace in the region is not disturbed and Serbia will continue to behave responsibly and contribute to stability in the Balkans,\u201d adding that Serbia and the US will work to preserve Serbian-American relations. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Moreover, Vu\u010di\u0107 knows that ultimately, Serbia\u2019s alliance with the US and the EU, rather than Russia, will best serve Belgrade&#8217;s long-term national interests.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h5 class=\"wp-block-heading\">A responsible Serbia?<\/h5>\n\n\n\n<p>Vu\u010di\u0107 wants to project power and sensible leadership to strengthen himself domestically while demonstrating to the West that he is a responsible leader who will always endeavour to maintain regional stability. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>He stated that \u201cfor us, it is of great importance that the peace in the region is not broken and that Serbia will continue to act responsibly and contribute to stability in the Balkans.\u201d <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Nevertheless, he promised to continue purchasing arms from China and other countries, including anti-aircraft systems, fighter planes, and drones, and likes to flex his muscles as he has multiple times moved a small contingency of Serbian troops to Kosovo\u2019s border in what is considered by NATO as hostile actions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>One need not take Vu\u010di\u0107\u2019s words for granted; a closer look at the Balkans\u2019 overall political and military environment suggests that no country in the region wants to heighten the tension, which may accidentally precipitate a violent conflagration. NATO&#8217;s decision in early October to dispatch 200 British soldiers and 130 Romanian soldiers to reinforce its peacekeeping mission in Kosovo is not such a massive power meant to deter Belgrade. Vu\u010di\u0107 fully understands the high stakes for him if he steps out of line.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The purpose of the NATO forces augmentation in Kosovo, which also includes the purchase of drones and anti-tank missiles, mainly from Turkey, is to keep tensions in the Western Balkans under control, as NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg stated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In that regard, the US decision to sell 240 portable Javelin missile systems that can destroy tanks and other armored vehicles was designed to send a message to Russia\u2019s President Vladimir Putin that the US is fully engaged and committed to improving the security of its European partners, which is critical for both political and economic stability in Europe.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>For the ordinary Kosovar, though, when put together, Kurti\u2019s warning about a potential war with Serbia, the dispatch of more EU forces, and the US sale of Javelin missiles could amount to a looming war with Serbia. In fact, the last thing that Vu\u010di\u0107 wants is a war against Kosovo that would immediately draw NATO into the fray\u2014a war that he will not only severely lose but would also irreversibly damage Serbia\u2019s prospect of joining the EU. This is something that Vu\u010di\u0107 wants to avoid at all costs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h5 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Time for Kurti to be prudent<\/h5>\n\n\n\n<p>Although Prime Minister Kurti is duty-bound to ensure Kosovo\u2019s national security, he should view it in the context of NATO\u2019s overall commitment to the stability of the Balkans and how other conflicts might impact that. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Even though the turmoil in the Middle East is not likely to spill over into the Balkans, the US is rightfully demonstrating in words and deeds that it takes the security and the development of events in the Balkan region very seriously and will act promptly to prevent any miscalculation by a would-be enemy, especially Russia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The US\u2019 sale of Javelin missiles to augment Kosovo\u2019s military forces will not be the last shipment of military hardware; other supplies of military equipment will follow it as the Kosovo Security Forces aims to transition into a professional military force by 2028 to meet NATO standards.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>For this reason, it will be prudent for Kurti to take what Vu\u010di\u0107 says or does with some reservation. Vu\u010di\u0107 is not interested in violently engaging Kosovo as he is extremely keen that his losses will far outweigh any gain. Therefore, Kurti&#8217;s suggestion that Serbia is planning for war against Kosovo does nothing but cause unnecessary public tension and stress, destabilise the economy, and create a rush to stock unperishable goods, often precipitating inflation and creating financial distress and social tension.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Unless Kurti\u2019s warning of a potential war against Serbia is purposely designed to strengthen his political standing and rally the public around him in an election year, which I do not believe is the case, he should know by now that Vu\u010di\u0107 speaks loudly but carries a small stick.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-text-color has-background has-cyan-bluish-gray-background-color has-cyan-bluish-gray-color is-style-wide\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Photo: Aleksandar Vu\u010di\u0107 at a European Union-Western Balkans summit. \u00a9 <a href=\"https:\/\/newsroom.consilium.europa.eu\/permalink\/p141009\">European Union<\/a><\/em>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-text-color has-background has-cyan-bluish-gray-background-color has-cyan-bluish-gray-color is-style-wide\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Unlike many news and information platforms,&nbsp;<em>Emerging Europe<\/em>&nbsp;is free to read, and always will be.&nbsp;There is no paywall here.&nbsp;We are independent,&nbsp;not affiliated with nor representing any political party or business&nbsp;organisation.&nbsp;We want the very best for emerging Europe, nothing more, nothing less. Your support will help us continue to spread the word about this amazing region.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>You can contribute&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/emergingeurope.krtra.com\/t\/NlQnFuOA2C9c\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">here<\/a>. Thank you.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter\"><a href=\"https:\/\/emergingeurope.krtra.com\/t\/NlQnFuOA2C9c\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/emerging-europe.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/copy-of-add-a-heading.png\" alt=\"emerging europe support independent journalism\" class=\"wp-image-50811\"\/><\/a><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-text-color has-background has-cyan-bluish-gray-background-color has-cyan-bluish-gray-color is-style-wide\"\/>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Prime Minister Albin Kurti, who needs to maintain public calm, should not casually talk about a potential war against Serbia. This only heightens internal tension in<span class=\"excerpt-hellip\"> [\u2026]<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":18508,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[6639,6618,21,6320,6749,6592,6596,6603,402,6748,6668],"class_list":["post-18507","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-opinion","tag-albin-kurti","tag-aleksandar-vucic","tag-economy-politics","tag-featured","tag-jens-stoltenberg","tag-kosovo","tag-nato","tag-russia","tag-serbia","tag-turkey","tag-united-states"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/reinvantage-dev.eonserver.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18507","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/reinvantage-dev.eonserver.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/reinvantage-dev.eonserver.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/reinvantage-dev.eonserver.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/reinvantage-dev.eonserver.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=18507"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/reinvantage-dev.eonserver.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18507\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/reinvantage-dev.eonserver.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/18508"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/reinvantage-dev.eonserver.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=18507"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/reinvantage-dev.eonserver.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=18507"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/reinvantage-dev.eonserver.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=18507"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}