{"id":18742,"date":"2024-04-08T10:11:39","date_gmt":"2024-04-08T10:11:39","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/reinvantage-dev.eonserver.com\/?p=18742"},"modified":"2024-04-08T10:11:39","modified_gmt":"2024-04-08T10:11:39","slug":"a-creaking-hungarian-economy-is-forcing-erstwhile-supporters-of-viktor-orban-to-consider-their-options","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/reinvantage-dev.eonserver.com\/?p=18742","title":{"rendered":"A creaking Hungarian economy is forcing erstwhile supporters of Viktor Orb\u00e1n to consider their options"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><strong>Amid economic strains and shifting political loyalties, Hungary&#8217;s latest mass protest against Prime Minister Viktor Orb\u00e1n signals a turning tide, with former allies and disillusioned supporters rallying for change.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Occasional mass protests in Budapest against Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orb\u00e1n are nothing new. Either spontaneous or organised by the country\u2019s main opposition parties, such as the overtly pro-European Union Momentum, they usually follow the announcement of yet another piece of appalling legislation viewed as an attack on Hungarian democracy itself.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Young people and EU flags predominate, allowing Orb\u00e1n to wave the protests away as nothing more than Brussels meddling yet again in internal Hungarian politics. The impact of such protests is minimal.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-text-color has-background has-cyan-bluish-gray-background-color has-cyan-bluish-gray-color is-style-wide\"\/>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li><a href=\"https:\/\/emerging-europe.com\/news\/cee-can-put-itself-at-the-heart-of-the-global-supply-chain\/\">CEE can put itself at the heart of the global supply chain<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/emerging-europe.com\/news\/boosting-competition-strengthening-public-finances-and-reforms-to-education-could-put-hungary-on-a-stronger-growth-path%ef%bf%bc\/\">Boosting competition, strengthening public finances, and reforms to education could put Hungary on a stronger growth path<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/emerging-europe.com\/news\/problems-pile-up-for-hungarys-viktor-orban\/\">Problems pile up for Hungary\u2019s Viktor Orb\u00e1n<\/a><\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-text-color has-background has-cyan-bluish-gray-background-color has-cyan-bluish-gray-color is-style-wide\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p>The largest protest against Orb\u00e1n and his Fidesz party for several years, attended by a crowd whose numbers ran well into the 100s of thousands, which took place in Budapest on April 6, was notably different. There was nary an EU nor opposition flag in sight and the crowd was in large part older than would be expected at an anti-Orb\u00e1n demonstration. \u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Addressing the rally was an erstwhile Orb\u00e1n ally, P\u00e9ter Magyar, the estranged husband of former Justice Minister Judit Varga and until recently a key part of the Fidesz inner circle. Two months ago, however, he turned whistle blower, revealing (to nobody&#8217;s surprise) what he alleges is a rampant culture of corruption at the heart of the Hungarian government and setting up his own political movement, Talpra Magyarok (Rise up, Hungarians). \u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>His decision to challenge the government followed the resignation of Hungary\u2019s president, Katalin Nov\u00e1k, after it emerged that she had pardoned a man convicted of helping cover up a sexual abuse case at a children\u2019s home. It was the same case that forced Magyar\u2019s ex-wife, Varga, to resign.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In Budapest\u2019s Kossuth Lajos Square on April 6, in front of Hungary\u2019s magnificent parliament building, Magyar said that he would launch a party to participate in June&#8217;s elections for the European Parliament.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Criticising both Orb\u00e1n and the opposition\u2014which he accused of doing nothing in 14 years to stop Fidesz\u2014Magyar used language clearly designed to appeal to disaffected Orb\u00e1n supporters.&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cStep by step, brick by brick, we are taking back our homeland and building a new country, a sovereign, modern, European Hungary,\u201d he said.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>An opinion poll in mid-March claimed that 68 per cent of voters have heard of Magyar\u2019s entry into the political field and that 13 per cent of those said that they were likely to support any party he founded. On the evidence of the April 6 rally, many of these voters will be former Orb\u00e1n supporters.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201c[Magyar] is the politician I have been waiting for,\u201d said one protester, Zs\u00f3fia Farkas, an accountant, who had travelled from the nearby town of Kecskem\u00e9t to take part. \u201cIf the choice is between Orb\u00e1n and politicians who will do whatever Brussels tells them, I choose Orb\u00e1n. But what I really want is something else. I think [Magyar] offers a sensible option.\u201d&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h5 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Orb\u00e1n\u2019s core support begins to grumble\u00a0<\/h5>\n\n\n\n<p>That erstwhile Orb\u00e1n voters are beginning to consider their options has much to do with the performance of the creaking Hungarian economy, whose poor performance in recent years has arguably hit conservative Hungarians\u2014 Orb\u00e1n\u2019s core support\u2014hardest.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Energy subsidies which have provided Hungarians with some of Europe\u2019s cheapest gas and electricity have kept most onside, but recent years have seen the Hungarian forint undergo significant depreciation, affecting the cost of imports and contributing to inflationary pressures. High inflation rates\u2014although now far lower than their peak of 17.5 per cent in&nbsp;early 2023\u2014eroded purchasing power, impacting everyday Hungarians more than Orb\u00e1n would have liked.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>There are also grumblings from small businesses, less than pleased at the way Orb\u00e1n\u2019s government has prioritised FDI from major global corporations, including giants in the automotive industry such as Audi, BMW, and Mercedes-Benz. These investments have been heralded as major victories for Fidesz, promising job creation and economic stimulation, and serving as proof that his self-confessed illiberal social policies are no barrier to investment.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The government&#8217;s FDI strategy has included offering generous tax incentives, creating favourable investment conditions, and emphasising Hungary&#8217;s strategic location in Central Europe as an asset for logistical operations. Broadly, the strategy has worked, and yet despite these investments, Hungary&#8217;s economic growth has been uneven and, by several measures, underwhelming when compared to its Central and Eastern European neighbours. &nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>According to BNP Paribas, a bank, \u201cHungary has one of the worst performing economies in the region\u201d. GDP fell by 0.9 per cent in 2023.\u00a0The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) expects a slight recovery this year, to 2.4 per cent, but in <a href=\"https:\/\/emerging-europe.com\/news\/boosting-competition-strengthening-public-finances-and-reforms-to-education-could-put-hungary-on-a-stronger-growth-path%ef%bf%bc\/\">a recent report<\/a> warned that the pace of disinflation, future energy prices, and the delivery of EU funds dependent on rule-of-law reforms pose risks to the outlook.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h5 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Brain drain\u00a0<\/h5>\n\n\n\n<p>Hungary is also haemorrhaging people. While foreign investment has unquestionably created jobs, it has not been able to stop a significant brain drain, with skilled workers emigrating in search of higher wages and better living conditions. Last year, some 33,700 Hungarians left the country\u2014the highest number since 2010, according to the country\u2019s national statistics office. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In all, 325,000 Hungarians have migrated since Orb\u00e1n took office for the second time in 2010\u2014around 3.5 per cent of the total population and almost\u00a0equivalent to the combined population of Hungary\u2019s second and third largest cities, Debrecen and Szeged.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This exodus has strained the labour market, making it difficult for both foreign and domestic companies to find and retain high-quality staff. And despite generous incentives designed to boost the population, Hungarian women <a href=\"https:\/\/444.hu\/2024\/01\/26\/nepmozgalom-szuletes-halalozas-demografia-statisztika-ksh\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">gave birth to fewer babies<\/a> in 2023 than ever before.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Hungary has also been one of the largest per capita beneficiaries of EU structural and cohesion funds, intended to support economic development and convergence within the Union. However, there are concerns about the sustainability of this reliance, especially amid criticisms of Orb\u00e1n&#8217;s government for allegedly undermining democratic values, which has led to significant funding being withheld.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In December, the European Commission approved the release of 10.2 billion euros in cohesion funds for Hungary, almost a year after the money was frozen over the country&#8217;s failure to address persistent rule-of-law concerns. However, that still leaves the country without a further 11.5 billion euros in cohesion funds as well as its post-Covid-19 recovery and resilience money\u201410.4 billion euros of grants and low-interest loans. There is little sign that Orb\u00e1n is ready to enact the kind of reform that would unlock the money.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Magyar is banking on more Orb\u00e1n voters reaching the conclusion that only by\u00a0improving transparency, fighting corruption, and adhering to democratic principles will Hungary&#8217;s economic fortunes improve. For now, Orb\u00e1n himself appears unmoved. A strong showing for Magyar\u2019s party in the European Parliament elections would change that.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-text-color has-background has-cyan-bluish-gray-background-color has-cyan-bluish-gray-color is-style-wide\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Unlike many news and information platforms,&nbsp;<em>Emerging Europe<\/em>&nbsp;is free to read, and always will be.&nbsp;There is no paywall here.&nbsp;We are independent,&nbsp;not affiliated with nor representing any political party or business&nbsp;organisation.&nbsp;We want the very best for emerging Europe, nothing more, nothing less. Your support will help us continue to spread the word about this amazing region.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>You can contribute&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/emergingeurope.krtra.com\/t\/NlQnFuOA2C9c\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">here<\/a>. Thank you.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter\"><a href=\"https:\/\/emergingeurope.krtra.com\/t\/NlQnFuOA2C9c\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/emerging-europe.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/copy-of-add-a-heading.png\" alt=\"emerging europe support independent journalism\" class=\"wp-image-50811\"\/><\/a><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-text-color has-background has-cyan-bluish-gray-background-color has-cyan-bluish-gray-color is-style-wide\"\/>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Amid economic strains and shifting political loyalties, Hungary&#8217;s latest mass protest against Prime Minister Viktor Orb\u00e1n signals a turning tide, with former allies and disillusioned supporters<span class=\"excerpt-hellip\"> [\u2026]<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":18743,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[34,21,6633,7167,6320,7165,356,6878,7166,7168,6664],"class_list":["post-18742","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analysis","tag-demographics","tag-economy-politics","tag-european-union","tag-fdi-in-hungary","tag-featured","tag-hungarian-economy","tag-hungary","tag-katalin-novak","tag-peter-magyar","tag-talpra-magyarok","tag-viktor-orban"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/reinvantage-dev.eonserver.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18742","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/reinvantage-dev.eonserver.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/reinvantage-dev.eonserver.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/reinvantage-dev.eonserver.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/reinvantage-dev.eonserver.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=18742"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/reinvantage-dev.eonserver.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18742\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/reinvantage-dev.eonserver.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/18743"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/reinvantage-dev.eonserver.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=18742"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/reinvantage-dev.eonserver.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=18742"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/reinvantage-dev.eonserver.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=18742"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}