{"id":18912,"date":"2024-05-24T07:53:21","date_gmt":"2024-05-24T07:53:21","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/reinvantage-dev.eonserver.com\/?p=18912"},"modified":"2024-05-24T07:53:21","modified_gmt":"2024-05-24T07:53:21","slug":"how-armenia-and-azerbaijan-finally-made-peace","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/reinvantage-dev.eonserver.com\/?p=18912","title":{"rendered":"How Armenia and Azerbaijan finally made peace"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><strong>After 32 years, Armenia and Azerbaijan are set to sign a peace agreement that will end the most bitter conflict to emerge from the dying days of the USSR.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>When the USSR disintegrated at the end of 1991, the Kremlin manufactured or indirectly supported ethnic conflicts throughout the territory of the Soviet Union. In each case the former Soviet army transformed into the new Russian army, and its intervention was decisive in giving victory to separatists and pro-Russian proxies. Russia <a href=\"https:\/\/novayagazeta.ru\/articles\/2021\/01\/27\/88901-nalog-na-velichie\">continues<\/a> to financially and militarily support separatist enclaves in Eurasia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-text-color has-background has-cyan-bluish-gray-background-color has-cyan-bluish-gray-color is-style-wide\"\/>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li><a href=\"https:\/\/emerging-europe.com\/voices\/armenia-should-support-regional-cooperation-to-back-its-european-integration%ef%bf%bc\/\">Armenia should support regional cooperation to back its European integration<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/emerging-europe.com\/voices\/why-2024-will-be-a-breakthrough-year-for-the-south-caucasus\/\">Why 2024 will be a breakthrough year for the South Caucasus<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/emerging-europe.com\/news\/bearing-fruit-vc-funding-growth-rates-in-caucasus-and-central-asia-now-surpass-nordics\/\">Bearing fruit: VC funding growth rates in Caucasus and Central Asia now surpass Nordics<\/a><\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-text-color has-background has-cyan-bluish-gray-background-color has-cyan-bluish-gray-color is-style-wide\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p>In Moldova, the former Soviet and Russian army intervened in support of separatists who defeated the central government. Russia manufactured a frozen conflict in the Transnistria which continues to host Russian military bases and a lawless separatist enclave. Russia seeks to <a href=\"https:\/\/jamestown.org\/program\/russia-determined-to-take-over-moldova-or-break-it-part-one\/\">militarily intervene<\/a> and remove Moldova\u2019s pro-Western leaders.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In Georgia, the Russian army and Chechen mercenaries defeated the Georgian central government. South Ossetia and Abkhazia were ethnically cleansed of their Georgian inhabitants, and they became lawless frozen conflicts. In 2008, after Russia invaded Georgia, the Kremlin recognised the \u2018independence\u2019 of <a href=\"http:\/\/www.kremlin.ru\/acts\/bank\/27957\">Abkhazia<\/a> and <a href=\"http:\/\/www.kremlin.ru\/acts\/bank\/27958\">South Ossetia<\/a>. The two Georgian provinces have been ethnically cleansed of Georgians and have been de facto <a href=\"https:\/\/kremlin-roadmap.gfsis.org.ge\/news\/display\/2009\">annexed<\/a> by Russia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In Azerbaijan, Soviet and then Russian forces assisted Armenia in defeating the central government, intervening militarily in Baku and Sumgait where they killed 150 Azerbaijani civilians.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Unlike in Moldova and Georgia, where Russia created proxy entities under its control, Armenia occupied a fifth of Azerbaijan territory, including the Karabakh region.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h5 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Breaking the deadlock<\/h5>\n\n\n\n<p>The Moldovan and Georgian frozen conflicts remain unresolved. Azerbaijan is the only case in Eurasia which has resolved the three-decade old conflict through patient diplomacy, transforming itself into an energy power and building up military alliances with <a href=\"https:\/\/caliber.az\/post\/217948\/\">Israel<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.aa.com.tr\/ru\/%D0%BF%D0%BE%D0%BB%D0%B8%D1%82%D0%B8%D0%BA%D0%B0\/%D1%88%D1%83%D1%88%D0%B8%D0%BD%D1%81%D0%BA%D0%B0%D1%8F-%D0%B4%D0%B5%D0%BA%D0%BB%D0%B0%D1%80%D0%B0%D1%86%D0%B8%D1%8F-%D0%B2%D1%82%D0%BE%D1%80%D0%B0%D1%8F-%D0%B3%D0%BE%D0%B4%D0%BE%D0%B2%D1%89%D0%B8%D0%BD%D0%B0-%D0%B8%D1%81%D1%82%D0%BE%D1%80%D0%B8%D1%87%D0%B5%D1%81%D0%BA%D0%BE%D0%B3%D0%BE-%D0%B4%D0%BE%D0%BA%D1%83%D0%BC%D0%B5%D0%BD%D1%82%D0%B0\/2922820\">Turkey<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Decades of negotiations under the auspices of the Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) proved <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bbc.com\/russian\/features-48267600\">fruitless<\/a> in Azerbaijan, as in Moldova and Georgia. The US lost interest in the region while France increasingly <a href=\"https:\/\/www.kavkaz-uzel.eu\/blogs\/83781\/posts\/61870\">sided<\/a> with Armenia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The deadlock changed in three ways. First through <a href=\"https:\/\/genprosecutor.gov.az\/ru\/page\/azerbaycan\/i-ve-ii-qarabag-muharibesi\/44-gun-suren-veten-muharibesi-ii-qarabag-muharibesi\">military<\/a> means, second through a decline in Russian influence, and third through greater involvement by the <a href=\"https:\/\/arminfo.info\/full_news.php?id=80895\">European Union<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>First the military. In 2020, after a brief conflict in 2016 and skirmishes over the next four years, the Second Karabakh War broke out. The war was relatively brief, lasting only forty-four days, and leading to Armenia\u2019s military defeat.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Population sizes, Armenia with 2.8 million people and Azerbaijan with 10 million, were not decisive factors; after all, Armenia defeated Azerbaijan in the early 1990s. The key factor was the two very different militaries. Armenia continues to possess a Soviet or Russian military force, using Russian military equipment and with its officers <a href=\"https:\/\/www.kavkaz-uzel.eu\/blogs\/83781\/posts\/49155\">trained<\/a> in Russia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>&nbsp;The 2020 Second Karabakh War and the Russian-Ukrainian war since 2022 have highlighted the very poor quality of Russian military equipment and Russian military training. In contrast, Azerbaijan\u2019s army was outfitted with Israeli, Turkish, and other Western military equipment and its officers were <a href=\"https:\/\/turan.az\/ru\/v-mire\/izrailskoe-oruzie-nezametno-pomoglo-azerbaidzanu-vernut-nagornyi-karabax-k-uzasu-armian-regiona-770097\">trained<\/a> in military academies in NATO member states.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Azerbaijan\u2019s military victory returned the bulk of the land it had lost in the early 1990s, in the First Karabakh War. A trilateral peace agreement between both parties brokered by Russia introduced so-called Russian \u2018<a href=\"https:\/\/www.bbc.com\/russian\/news-54886782\">peacekeeping<\/a>\u2019 forces. Russia has used its so-called \u2018peacekeeping\u2019 forces to freeze conflicts indefinitely, making them into a de facto permanent military base.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Not surprisingly, neither side was satisfied by the Russian \u2018peacekeeping\u2019 forces. Armenia had <a href=\"https:\/\/meduza.io\/news\/2023\/09\/21\/pashinyan-zayavil-o-provale-rossiyskih-mirotvortsev-v-karabahe\">hoped<\/a> they would defend its last remaining enclave in Karabakh. Meanwhile, Azerbaijan believed Russian \u2018peacekeepers\u2019 <a href=\"https:\/\/report.az\/ru\/karabakh\/prezident-raskritikoval-mirotvorcev-skryto-propuskayut-inostrancev-v-karabah\/\">should facilitate<\/a> the de-militarisation of Karabakh and the dismantling of separatist institutions that had become illegal under the trilateral agreement.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Armenia did not withdraw its forces from Karabakh or dismantle the enclave\u2019s separatist institutions, two steps to be taken in the trilateral peace agreement. Russian \u2018peacekeepers\u2019 turned a blind eye to Yerevan supplying military equipment and rotating troops to Karabakh. Azerbaijan applied pressure on the enclave by blockading the Lachin corridor connecting Karabakh and Armenia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h5 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Peace, finally<\/h5>\n\n\n\n<p>In September 2023, conflict between the three parties, Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Russian \u2018peacekeepers,\u2019 came to a head. A 24-hour offensive by Azerbaijan, dubbed an \u2018anti-terrorist operation,\u2019 <a href=\"https:\/\/www.aa.com.tr\/ru\/%D0%B0%D0%BD%D0%B0%D0%BB%D0%B8%D0%B7-%D0%BD%D0%BE%D0%B2%D0%BE%D1%81%D1%82%D0%B5%D0%B9\/%D0%B0%D0%BD%D1%82%D0%B8%D1%82%D0%B5%D1%80%D1%80%D0%BE%D1%80%D0%B8%D1%81%D1%82%D0%B8%D1%87%D0%B5%D1%81%D0%BA%D0%B0%D1%8F-%D0%BE%D0%BF%D0%B5%D1%80%D0%B0%D1%86%D0%B8%D1%8F-%D0%B0%D0%B7%D0%B5%D1%80%D0%B1%D0%B0%D0%B9%D0%B4%D0%B6%D0%B0%D0%BD%D0%B0-%D0%B2-%D0%BA%D0%B0%D1%80%D0%B0%D0%B1%D0%B0%D1%85%D0%B5\/2997424\">recaptured<\/a> Karabakh. The enclaves\u2019 Armenian inhabitants, after decades of nationalist propaganda, ignored Baku\u2019s guarantee of minority rights and <a href=\"https:\/\/rus.azattyq.org\/a\/armenia-azerbaijan-karabakh-erdogan-aliyev\/32609442.html\">moved<\/a> to Armenia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This year, the final stage in the long-drawn-out drama is ending. In March, Yerevan agreed to &nbsp;villages it still controlled <a href=\"https:\/\/1news.az\/news\/20240309035033542-Azerbaidzhan-trebuet-osvobozhdeniya-okkupirovannykh-Armeniei-sel\">returning<\/a> to Azerbaijan. After long refusing to countenance this step, Armenia has <a href=\"https:\/\/jam-news.net\/ru\/%D0%BF%D0%B0%D1%88%D0%B8%D0%BD%D1%8F%D0%BD-%D0%BE-%D1%80%D0%B5%D0%B0%D0%BB%D1%8C%D0%BD%D0%BE%D0%B9-%D0%B0%D1%80%D0%BC%D0%B5%D0%BD%D0%B8%D0%B8-%D0%B8-%D0%B4%D0%B5%D0%BB%D0%B8\/\">agreed<\/a> to sign a peace treaty with Azerbaijan with their border based on the republican boundaries that existed in the USSR.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The growing role of the EU as an honest broker bringing Armenia and Azerbaijan into a negotiated settlement grew at the same time as Russia\u2019s influence declined. Russia\u2019s full-scale invasion of Ukraine reduced the Kremlin\u2019s influence throughout Eurasia. Of the fourteen former Soviet republics, other than Russia, only one\u2014Belarus\u2014has supported the Kremlin at the UN and in other international organisations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Russia withdrew its \u2018peacekeeping\u2019 forces in April-May for <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vedomosti.ru\/politics\/articles\/2024\/04\/17\/1032442-mirotvortsi-rossii-dosrochno\">three reasons<\/a>. Firstly, both sides were critical of the passivity of Russian \u2018peacekeepers\u2019 in either defending the Karabakh separatist enclave (Armenia) or in not implementing the trilateral agreement\u2019s demilitarisation and dismantling of the Karabakh separatist structures (Azerbaijan).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Secondly, Azerbaijan had completed the return of all its internationally recognised territory in the First Karabakh War in 2020, in the \u2018anti-terrorist operation\u2019 in Karabakh in 2023, and this year in negotiating the return of four villages.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Thirdly, Russia\u2019s massive losses in military equipment, including 3,000 tanks, and over 450,000 casualties in its war against Ukraine. These losses have led the Kremlin to withdraw its forces from frozen conflicts in Eurasia and recruit mercenaries from Africa, Syria, India, and Nepal for <a href=\"https:\/\/www.unian.ua\/war\/viyna-v-ukrajini-v-gur-poyasnili-chomu-rosiya-aktivno-verbuye-naymanciv-12542907.html\">use<\/a> in its war against Ukraine.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>After 32 years, Armenia and Azerbaijan are set to sign a peace agreement that will bring peace to the most bitter conflict that emerged in the dying days of the USSR. This was achieved by four factors coming together. First, Azerbaijan investing in Western military equipment and training; second a colour revolution bringing Western-leaning Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan to power; third the Kremlin\u2019s war against Ukraine speeding up Russia\u2019s decline as a great power; and finally, the EU replacing Russia as the power broker in the South Caucasus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-text-color has-background has-cyan-bluish-gray-background-color has-cyan-bluish-gray-color is-style-wide\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Photo by <a href=\"https:\/\/unsplash.com\/@lyovon?utm_content=creditCopyText&amp;utm_medium=referral&amp;utm_source=unsplash\">Levon Vardanyan<\/a> on <a href=\"https:\/\/unsplash.com\/photos\/aerial-view-of-city-buildings-during-daytime-_EpaiWp5yC8?utm_content=creditCopyText&amp;utm_medium=referral&amp;utm_source=unsplash\">Unsplash<\/a>.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-text-color has-background has-cyan-bluish-gray-background-color has-cyan-bluish-gray-color is-style-wide\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Unlike many news and information platforms,&nbsp;<em>Emerging Europe<\/em>&nbsp;is free to read, and always will be.&nbsp;There is no paywall here.&nbsp;We are independent,&nbsp;not affiliated with nor representing any political party or business&nbsp;organisation.&nbsp;We want the very best for emerging Europe, nothing more, nothing less. Your support will help us continue to spread the word about this amazing region.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>You can contribute&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/emergingeurope.krtra.com\/t\/NlQnFuOA2C9c\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">here<\/a>. Thank you.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter\"><a href=\"https:\/\/emergingeurope.krtra.com\/t\/NlQnFuOA2C9c\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/emerging-europe.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/copy-of-add-a-heading.png\" alt=\"emerging europe support independent journalism\" class=\"wp-image-50811\"\/><\/a><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-text-color has-background has-cyan-bluish-gray-background-color has-cyan-bluish-gray-color is-style-wide\"\/>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>After 32 years, Armenia and Azerbaijan are set to sign a peace agreement that will end the most bitter conflict to emerge from the dying days<span class=\"excerpt-hellip\"> [\u2026]<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":18913,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[343,6657,350,21,6633,6320,7374,379,348,6763,6767,6764,6603],"class_list":["post-18912","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-opinion","tag-armenia","tag-azerbaijan","tag-belarus","tag-economy-politics","tag-european-union","tag-featured","tag-france","tag-georgia","tag-moldova","tag-nagorno-karabakh","tag-nagorno-karabakh-war","tag-nikol-pashinyan","tag-russia"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/reinvantage-dev.eonserver.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18912","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/reinvantage-dev.eonserver.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/reinvantage-dev.eonserver.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/reinvantage-dev.eonserver.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/reinvantage-dev.eonserver.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=18912"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/reinvantage-dev.eonserver.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18912\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/reinvantage-dev.eonserver.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/18913"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/reinvantage-dev.eonserver.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=18912"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/reinvantage-dev.eonserver.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=18912"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/reinvantage-dev.eonserver.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=18912"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}