{"id":19004,"date":"2024-06-27T06:00:00","date_gmt":"2024-06-27T06:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/reinvantage-dev.eonserver.com\/?p=19004"},"modified":"2024-06-27T06:00:00","modified_gmt":"2024-06-27T06:00:00","slug":"how-the-kremlin-uses-agriculture-to-undermine-the-west-and-advance-its-political-agenda","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/reinvantage-dev.eonserver.com\/?p=19004","title":{"rendered":"How the Kremlin uses agriculture to undermine the West and advance its political agenda"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><strong>We should expect more Russian grain politicking throughout and after this summer and autumn harvest season, most likely supported by states apathetic to or aligned with Russia\u2019s international political agenda.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>According to its latest development strategy, Russia plans to consolidate global power by dominating international agricultural markets and undermining the Western-led global agricultural order. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Some <a href=\"https:\/\/www.wilsoncenter.org\/event\/russian-agrarian-policy-under-putin\">believe<\/a> that Russian President Vladimir Putin has <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ft.com\/content\/4d925bae-fa89-4e64-9063-0c01e3b5690c\">prioritised<\/a> Russia\u2019s agricultural production for national power throughout the 21st century, the sector having been neglected by his predecessor, Boris Yeltsin. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Among its most profitable commodities, Russia has been <a href=\"https:\/\/www.zois-berlin.de\/en\/publications\/zois-spotlight\/the-international-grain-trade-and-the-war\">transforming<\/a> itself from an importer to a leading global exporter of wheat over the past several decades. In 2018, Putin <a href=\"https:\/\/www.gisreportsonline.com\/r\/russias-agriculture-sector\/\">bragged<\/a> that \u201cagricultural exports exceed arms sales by more than a third\u201d, highlighting a new source of national power. Five years later, Putin <a href=\"https:\/\/www.oreanda-news.com\/en\/gosudarstvo\/putin-declared-pride-in-russia-s-agriculture\/article1494654\/\">told<\/a> the world that Russia had transformed from a net importer to the world\u2019s largest exporter of wheat.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-text-color has-background has-cyan-bluish-gray-background-color has-cyan-bluish-gray-color is-style-wide\"\/>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li><a href=\"https:\/\/emerging-europe.com\/news\/the-last-word-how-to-empower-more-women-in-the-agrifood-sector\/\">How to empower more women in the agrifood sector?<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/emerging-europe.com\/voices\/how-romania-with-little-fanfare-became-a-supply-chain-star\/\">How Romania, with little fanfare, became a supply chain star<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/emerging-europe.com\/news\/in-economic-terms-ukraine-is-unlikely-to-overburden-the-eu\/\">In economic terms, Ukraine is unlikely to overburden the EU<\/a><\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-text-color has-background has-cyan-bluish-gray-background-color has-cyan-bluish-gray-color is-style-wide\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p>Russia used its war in Ukraine to enhance global agricultural power. Following Russia\u2019s invasion of Ukraine, Russia severely <a href=\"https:\/\/lu.usembassy.gov\/putins-destruction-of-ukrainian-farms\/\">undermined<\/a> Ukrainian harvest and export capabilities and, relatedly, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnn.com\/2023\/10\/05\/economy\/russia-wheat-exports-ukraine-war\/index.html\">facilitated<\/a> its own \u201crecord\u201d wheat exports. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Russia <a href=\"https:\/\/cepr.org\/voxeu\/columns\/rebalancing-scales-need-tariffs-russian-grain\">outperformed<\/a> traditionally large European exporters like Ukraine, Poland, Romania, and France. Russian agricultural exports soared in 2023, due to a plentiful harvest season and the rouble\u2019s decline which <a href=\"https:\/\/nebraskapublicmedia.org\/en\/news\/news-articles\/the-us-agricultural-trade-deficit-could-reach-record-highs-for-2023-is-there-cause-for-concern\/\">lowered<\/a> costs for buyers. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In December 2023, Russian Agriculture Minister Dmitriy Patrushev <a href=\"https:\/\/tass.com\/economy\/1726141\">forecasted<\/a> \u201canother historical record\u201d for Russian agricultural exports in 2024, to be achieved by increasing trade with \u201cfriendly countries\u201d. Looking to 2030, Russian President Vladimir Putin <a href=\"https:\/\/www.rt.com\/russia\/597215-puring-national-development-goals\/\">envisions<\/a> Russia becoming the fourth largest global economy. Russia\u2019s international agricultural trade will become \u201ca significant driver\u201d of such efforts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Russia seeks to both prove its necessity to the Western-led international agricultural order and to create its own order alongside \u201cfriendly\u201d states. The Russian government claims that its grain exports feed the world\u2014promoting an image of irreplaceability and power, even given its pariah status. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Russian exports <a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/markets\/commodities\/russia-north-korea-discuss-agriculture-2024-04-24\/\">totalled<\/a> a record 45 billion US dollars in 2023. Despite a barrage of Western sanctions designed to constrict the Russian economy, agricultural commodities were <a href=\"https:\/\/ofac.treasury.gov\/media\/924341\/download?inline\">exempt<\/a> from early US sanctions, for example, on the Russian economy. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<h5 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Limited sanctions<\/h5>\n\n\n\n<p>Relevant sanctions, instead, mostly focused on banking, equipment, fertilisers, and fuels. In March, Russia <a href=\"https:\/\/interfax.com\/newsroom\/top-stories\/100851\/\">warned<\/a> Europe that the European Union\u2019s steep <a href=\"https:\/\/ec.europa.eu\/commission\/presscorner\/detail\/en\/ip_24_1652\">tariffs<\/a> on Russian and Belarusian food products will only hurt the European market by increasing prices. Indeed, amid some poor harvest seasons by other major grain suppliers, many European countries continued to import Russian grain throughout the war. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>While Russia exported a <a href=\"https:\/\/consent.yahoo.com\/v2\/collectConsent?sessionId=2_cc-session_a1ae7be4-d8c5-48e3-b5be-48993ff1e3d4\">limited<\/a> portion of its grain to the EU in 2023, Moscow, unfortunately, has a point. Recent external research by the Centre for Economic Policy Research <a href=\"https:\/\/cepr.org\/voxeu\/columns\/rebalancing-scales-need-tariffs-russian-grain\">found<\/a> that seven out of ten EU member states surveyed still imported about 10 per cent of their grain from Russia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Additionally, Russia has heavily exported agricultural products to the \u201cGlobal South\u201d and other allies, which are notoriously less willing to support such Western-leaning political blocs and more willing to form their own. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>On the heels of manufacturing a global food crisis, Russia extended a small olive branch by announcing shipment of 200,000 tonnes of \u201cfree\u201d grain to six African countries, in February 2024. Two months later, Russia <a href=\"https:\/\/interfax.com\/newsroom\/top-stories\/101594\/\">proposed<\/a> a grain trading platform exclusive to the BRICS intergovernmental organisation comprising Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, Iran, Egypt, Ethiopia, and the United Arab Emirates. In an attempted blow to so-called American unipolarity, the BRICS grain platform would sidestep the post-World-War II global order in which US-supplied wheat and corn dominate global markets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Between limited sanctions and many willing partners, Russian agricultural export have continued throughout the Russo-Ukraine War, and meanwhile, Russia has made moves to tear down the modern, global agricultural order. The Kremlin considers agriculture another industry for political competition. In 2014, Russia <a href=\"https:\/\/fas.usda.gov\/data\/russia-announces-ban-many-us-agricultural-products\">enacted<\/a> sanctions on agricultural products from the United States, Canada, the EU, Australia, and Norway\u2014most likely in retaliation against Western sanctions imposed after Russia\u2019s illegal annexation of Crimea in 2014. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Last year, Russia withdrew from and effectively obliterated the United Nations Black Sea Grain Initiative, designed to facilitate Ukrainian grain exports during the war. Russia <a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/world\/europe\/putin-says-russia-considering-withdrawal-grain-deal-2023-06-13\/\">cited<\/a> Western \u201ccheating\u201d\u2014a common refrain from Russia in international organisations. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>One month later, Russia passed a policy to <a href=\"https:\/\/www.agriculture.com\/putin-signs-decree-on-switch-to-rouble-settlement-for-farm-exports-7571568\">facilitate<\/a> payment for Russian agricultural products in roubles instead of dollars, to evade global sanctions. Further, in April of this year, Russia <a href=\"https:\/\/www.fdd.org\/analysis\/2024\/06\/17\/in-prisoner-swap-sweden-releases-iranian-official-convicted-of-war-crimes\/\">seized<\/a> the assets of agricultural holding company AgroTerra\u2014part of a broader effort to penalise companies from \u201cunfriendly\u201d countries. Russia has decided that the West\u2019s rules aren\u2019t fair, so it won\u2019t play fair, either.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h5 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Grain for votes<\/h5>\n\n\n\n<p>As it constructs its own agricultural order, Russia strategically bolsters its agricultural trade with countries that support Russia\u2019s war. On February 24, 2023, one year after Russia\u2019s invasion of Ukraine officially began, the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) overwhelmingly <a href=\"https:\/\/www.aljazeera.com\/news\/2023\/2\/24\/un-tells-russia-to-leave-ukraine-how-did-countries-vote\">adopted<\/a> a resolution which called on Russia to withdraw its forces from Ukraine. Seven countries voted against the resolution: Belarus, North Korea, Eritrea, Mali, Nicaragua, Russia, and Syria. How has Russia rewarded these loyalists? With more agricultural trade\u2014under the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.africanews.com\/2023\/03\/20\/grain-deal-russia-ready-to-send-food-for-free-to-african-countries-in-need\/\">auspices<\/a> of benevolence\u2014bolstered by its war in Ukraine.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Take North Korea, for example, which has provided political and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.japantimes.co.jp\/news\/2022\/12\/23\/world\/north-korea-weapons-russia-ukraine\/\">military<\/a> assistance for Russia\u2019s war. Since the UNGA vote, Russia has been strengthening agricultural ties with North Korea. Russia <a href=\"https:\/\/interfax.com\/newsroom\/top-stories\/91909\/\">announced<\/a>, in the summer of 2023, its intention to begin supplying North Korea, which has long <a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/world\/asia-pacific\/north-korea-defectors-cite-dwindling-food-rations-market-reliance-study-2024-02-06\/\">suffered<\/a> food shortages, with grain. In early 2024, government records <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nknews.org\/2024\/05\/russia-exports-2k-tons-of-flour-and-corn-to-north-korea-amid-signs-of-shortages\/\">showed<\/a> that Russia shipped thousands of tons of flour and corn to North Korea. Months later, in April, the Russian government <a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/world\/high-level-north-korea-agriculture-delegation-visits-russia-kcna-2024-04-20\/\">welcomed<\/a> a high-level North Korean agricultural delegation which seeks to boost domestic agricultural productivity with Russian assistance. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Russia and North Korea have maintained decades of cooperation, yet Russian food exports have been relatively limited until only recently. Following heightened bilateral engagement, Russian President Vladimir Putin <a href=\"https:\/\/www.usnews.com\/news\/world\/articles\/2024-06-18\/factbox-north-korea-and-russia-trade-record-number-of-delegations\">visited<\/a> North Korea for the first time in 24 years last week and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.afr.com\/world\/asia\/putin-vows-trade-security-with-north-korea-20240618-p5jmvs\">pushed<\/a> for more trade between the two countries.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Nicaragua has a similar story. By 2023, Nicaragua was <a href=\"https:\/\/blog.iica.int\/en\/blog\/russia-ukraine-conflict-and-its-impact-agrifood-systems\">importing<\/a> lots of Russian wheat. That year, Nicaragua and Russia also <a href=\"https:\/\/tass.com\/economy\/1596635\">negotiated<\/a> a grain agreement, and Nicaragua <a href=\"https:\/\/en.mehrnews.com\/news\/202630\/Nicaragua-wants-to-ditch-dollar-in-Russia-trade-FM\">explored<\/a> plans to pay for Russian grain in rubles, instead of dollars. In October 2023, the Nicaraguan and Russian parliaments <a href=\"http:\/\/duma.gov.ru\/en\/news\/57970\/\">held<\/a> their inaugural \u201cCommission on Cooperation\u201d which included interest to enhance agricultural trade. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>By comparison, public data <a href=\"https:\/\/tradingeconomics.com\/nicaragua\/imports\/ukraine\">reveal<\/a> little agricultural trade between Nicaragua and Ukraine between 2022 and 2023. Russian agricultural trade with Nicaragua may reveal the Russian playbook: Foster global dependency on Russian exports by knocking out a major agricultural competitor, Ukraine, and then seize opportunities to bolster ties with friendly states through increased agricultural trade.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h5 class=\"wp-block-heading\">The damage is done<\/h5>\n\n\n\n<p>Despite the Kremlin\u2019s big vision for Russian agricultural output in 2024, abnormal <a href=\"https:\/\/www.spglobal.com\/commodityinsights\/en\/market-insights\/latest-news\/agriculture\/051524-may-frosts-damage-russian-grain-crops-hits-wheat-harvest\">frost<\/a> and drought <a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/markets\/commodities\/crop-woes-may-lead-russia-focus-traditional-grain-buyers-2024-06-06\/#:~:text=Russia%20is%20the%20world's%20largest,Egypt%20(2.7%20million%20tonnes).\">threatens<\/a> the upcoming harvest and undermines one of Russia\u2019s most effective diplomatic tools. Estimates for Russia\u2019s 2024 wheat production <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2024-05-21\/russia-wheat-crop-estimates-sink-10-in-a-month-fueling-rally?embedded-checkout=true\">declined<\/a> 10 percent in May. Yet Russia is still <a href=\"https:\/\/apps.fas.usda.gov\/psdonline\/circulars\/grain.pdf\">projected<\/a> to be the world\u2019s leading grain exporter. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Despite downgraded harvest projections, Russia still plans to be a significant grain supplier to the global south. Based on 2023 exports, Russia will likely export the most grain to Turkey, Egypt, Mexico, Indonesia, and Vietnam, according to data from ProZerno. Other top importers included <a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/article\/idUSKBN2YJ139\/\">Algeria<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/apps.fas.usda.gov\/psdonline\/circulars\/grain.pdf\">Bangladesh<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.azernews.az\/region\/221755.html\">Iran<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.apk-inform.com\/en\/news\/1540777\">Pakistan<\/a>, and <a href=\"https:\/\/thecradle.co\/articles-id\/7407\">Saudi Arabia<\/a>, so exports may increase there, as well.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The bad news is that even if Russian grain production fails to meet expectations, the damage has already been done. Russia has already <a href=\"https:\/\/asia.nikkei.com\/Business\/Markets\/Commodities\/Russia-drives-wheat-prices-to-near-3-year-low-with-export-push\">destabilised<\/a> pricing on the global grain market. Russia has already largely insulated itself from global sanctions. Russia has already undermined Ukrainian grain exports. Russia has already <a href=\"https:\/\/www.politico.eu\/article\/russia-winning-global-grain-war-farmer-ukraine-putin-agriculture\/\">sparked<\/a> political conflict within Europe over grain gluts. And Russia has already strengthened its diplomatic ties through grain trade. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>We can expect more Russian grain politicking throughout and after this summer and autumn harvest season, most likely supported by states apathetic to or aligned with Russia\u2019s international political agenda.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-text-color has-background has-cyan-bluish-gray-background-color has-cyan-bluish-gray-color is-style-wide\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Unlike many news and information platforms,&nbsp;<em>Emerging Europe<\/em>&nbsp;is free to read, and always will be.&nbsp;There is no paywall here.&nbsp;We are independent,&nbsp;not affiliated with nor representing any political party or business&nbsp;organisation.&nbsp;We want the very best for emerging Europe, nothing more, nothing less. Your support will help us continue to spread the word about this amazing region.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>You can contribute&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/emergingeurope.krtra.com\/t\/NlQnFuOA2C9c\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">here<\/a>. Thank you.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter\"><a href=\"https:\/\/emergingeurope.krtra.com\/t\/NlQnFuOA2C9c\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/emerging-europe.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/copy-of-add-a-heading.png\" alt=\"emerging europe support independent journalism\" class=\"wp-image-50811\"\/><\/a><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-text-color has-background has-cyan-bluish-gray-background-color has-cyan-bluish-gray-color is-style-wide\"\/>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>We should expect more Russian grain politicking throughout and after this summer and autumn harvest season, most likely supported by states apathetic to or aligned with<span class=\"excerpt-hellip\"> [\u2026]<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":19005,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[6918,350,6676,6674,21,6320,6603,420,7515,6675],"class_list":["post-19004","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-opinion","tag-agriculture","tag-belarus","tag-brics","tag-china","tag-economy-politics","tag-featured","tag-russia","tag-ukraine","tag-united-nations-black-sea-grain-initiative","tag-vladimir-putin"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/reinvantage-dev.eonserver.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19004","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/reinvantage-dev.eonserver.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/reinvantage-dev.eonserver.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/reinvantage-dev.eonserver.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/reinvantage-dev.eonserver.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=19004"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/reinvantage-dev.eonserver.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19004\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/reinvantage-dev.eonserver.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/19005"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/reinvantage-dev.eonserver.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=19004"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/reinvantage-dev.eonserver.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=19004"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/reinvantage-dev.eonserver.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=19004"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}