{"id":19430,"date":"2024-10-29T08:00:00","date_gmt":"2024-10-29T08:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/reinvantage-dev.eonserver.com\/?p=19430"},"modified":"2024-10-29T08:00:00","modified_gmt":"2024-10-29T08:00:00","slug":"will-orbans-trump-bet-pay-off","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/reinvantage-dev.eonserver.com\/?p=19430","title":{"rendered":"Will Orb\u00e1n\u2019s Trump bet pay off?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><strong>Hungary\u2019s government clearly wants the former US president to return to the White House and has been cultivating him and his wing of the Republican party. A Harris victory would be a significant setback for Orb\u00e1n.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Hungary\u2019s relationship with the United States has reached a historic low since Russia\u2019s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, and Prime Minister Viktor Orb\u00e1n is unequivocally hoping for Donald Trump to win a second term. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This contrasts sharply with other countries in Central and Eastern Europe that want to ensure Washington remains a stable security provider for the region regardless of the White House\u2019s occupant.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-text-color has-background has-cyan-bluish-gray-background-color has-cyan-bluish-gray-color is-style-wide\"\/>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li><a href=\"https:\/\/emerging-europe.com\/analysis\/eastern-europe-defies-the-downward-drag-from-germany\/\">Emerging Europe defies the downward drag from Germany<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/emerging-europe.com\/analysis\/the-last-word-hope-for-hungary-lies-in-budapest-its-diverse-liberal-capital\/\">Hope for Hungary lies in Budapest, its diverse, liberal capital<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/emerging-europe.com\/analysis\/economy-in-focus-hungary-2\/\">Economy in focus: Hungary<\/a><\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-text-color has-background has-cyan-bluish-gray-background-color has-cyan-bluish-gray-color is-style-wide\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p>The stance of Hungary\u2019s government stems from the ideological alignment of Orb\u00e1n\u2019s Fidesz party with the Republican party\u2019s MAGA wing, based on shared illiberal values and belief in authoritarian-style leadership. This partisan approach led to limited dialogue and repeated conflicts with Democratic administrations over Hungary\u2019s autocratisation, ties with China and Russia, and pervasive corruption.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The government has cultivated close ties with&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/edition.cnn.com\/2024\/03\/08\/politics\/trump-orban-mar-a-lago\/index.html\">Trump<\/a>&nbsp;as well as his running mate&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/world\/2024\/07\/17\/trump-vance-project-2025-orban-hungary\/\">J.D. Vance<\/a>&nbsp;and influential figures in the Republican Party, and also key strategists in the MAGA movement. While senior figures like&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.politico.com\/news\/2024\/09\/26\/mcconnell-republican-viktor-orban-00181174\">Senator Mitch McConnell<\/a>&nbsp;have voiced concerns about Hungary\u2019s pro-China policies,&nbsp;they are rather isolated in the party.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h5 class=\"wp-block-heading\">&#8216;Deep involvement&#8217;<\/h5>\n\n\n\n<p>In 2016, Orb\u00e1n was the only European leader to <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2016\/07\/24\/world\/americas\/hungarys-viktor-orban-says-donald-trump-is-better-for-europe.html\">endorse<\/a> Trump, which the former president <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/politics\/trump-offers-unusual-endorsement-of-hungarian-prime-minister-viktor-orban-ahead-of-parliamentary-elections\/2022\/01\/03\/23db1000-6c9b-11ec-b9fc-b394d592a7a6_story.html\">reciprocated<\/a> for Hungary\u2019s 2022 parliamentary elections.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Orb\u00e1n has called Trump a \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/www.politico.com\/news\/2024\/07\/08\/orban-trump-biden-election-00166745\">man of peace<\/a>\u201d whose reelection would end the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, while Trump&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.npr.org\/2024\/09\/10\/nx-s1-5107967\/viktor-orban-hungary-donald-trump-presidential-debate\">referred<\/a>&nbsp;to Orb\u00e1n as a \u201cstrong man\u201d and a \u201csmart prime minister\u201d during the recent presidential debate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>After Trump\u2019s defeat in 2020, Orb\u00e1n still bet on him for the long term. Fidesz and pro-government think tanks developed ties to MAGA circles. As a result, it is in Hungary that the Conservative Political Action Conference started holding an annual European meeting in 2022, bringing together far-right and illiberal actors from both sides of the Atlantic. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Danube Institute&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.hungarianconservative.com\/articles\/current\/cooperation_agreement_heritage_foundation_danube_institute\/\">established<\/a>&nbsp;formal cooperation with the Heritage Foundation, the home of the notorious Project 2025. In July, Orb\u00e1n&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/miniszterelnok.hu\/en\/speech-by-prime-minister-viktor-orban-at-the-33rd-balvanyos-summer-free-university-and-student-camp\/\">said<\/a>: \u201cWe have entered the programme-writing system of President Donald Trump\u2019s team, and we have deep involvement there\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h5 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Erosion of democracy<\/h5>\n\n\n\n<p>This partisanship is not the only reason for the deterioration of the relationship between Hungary\u2019s government and the Democrats. The Biden administration has criticised the erosion of democracy and the corruption caused by the Orb\u00e1n regime. It has also expressed growing frustration with its friendly ties with China and Russia.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In the last couple of years, Washington has disapproved of Hungary\u2019s&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/apnews.com\/article\/sweden-hungary-nato-turkey-membership-defense-russia-a1ce06ef3da02b9c892e625efa138d35\">delaying<\/a>&nbsp;of Finland and Sweden\u2019s NATO accession, its&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.politico.eu\/article\/eu-ministers-outrageous-hungary-blocks-military-aid-arms-ukraine\/\">obstruction<\/a>&nbsp;of EU aid to Ukraine, and its&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.ft.com\/content\/53f2e696-5ff2-4be9-bcf0-f6a144fbdbff\">opposition<\/a>&nbsp;to Russia sanctions. There has been controversies about the Budapest-based, Russia-controlled International Investment Bank (IIB), which is believed to have&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/foreignpolicy.com\/2023\/04\/13\/hungary-us-russia-sanctions-iib-intelligence-leak-corruption-ukraine\/\">ties to Russian intelligence<\/a>, and the controversial&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.politico.eu\/article\/hungary-viktor-orban-migration-russia-belarus-national-security-fears\/\">immigration scheme<\/a>&nbsp;simplifying the entry of Russian and Belarusian migrant workers into Hungary. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The country has also become a key&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.politico.eu\/article\/viktor-orban-xi-jinping-hungary-china-partnership-electric-vehicles-investments-cooperation\/\">entry point<\/a>&nbsp;for Chinese electric-vehicle and battery manufacturers into the European market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>As a result, the Biden administration has imposed&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/home.treasury.gov\/news\/press-releases\/jy1402\">sanctions<\/a>&nbsp;on a Hungarian national linked to the IIB as well as on&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/USAmbHungary\/status\/1827042901848739980\">corporate entities<\/a>&nbsp;associated with the Paks II nuclear power plant being built in partnership with Russia\u2019s Rosatom and with&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/home.treasury.gov\/news\/press-releases\/jy2546\">supporting<\/a>&nbsp;Russia\u2019s war effort.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h5 class=\"wp-block-heading\">A vindicated Orb\u00e1n may radicalise further<\/h5>\n\n\n\n<p>Trump\u2019s election would therefore be a welcome change for Orb\u00e1n. A Trump administration would ease the diplomatic pressure, giving Hungary\u2019s government greater room to manoeuvre and influence on the European and global stage. Trump\u2019s threat to coerce Ukraine into a peace deal by cutting off military aid would also align with Orb\u00e1n\u2019s attitude toward the country.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Orb\u00e1n would feel vindicated and may radicalise further. His close ties to the US president and perception as a \u201cTrump whisperer\u201d would boost his standing among his illiberal allies as he positions himself as a leader of nativist, sovereigntist forces in the EU.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Trump\u2019s victory could play into the hands of Orb\u00e1n at home, too. Criticism from Washington over democratic backsliding, corruption, and ties to Russia would cease, and the threat of more sanctions would dissipate. US support for civil society in the region, including in Hungary, would most likely plummet.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>All this may embolden Orb\u00e1n\u2019s government to increase pressure on its domestic critics ahead of the 2026 elections, especially as it faces a potentially dangerous new challenger in P\u00e9ter Magyar\u2019s Tisza party. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This would drive one more nail into the coffin of Hungary\u2019s relations with the EU. Any concerns raised by the EU institutions would fall on deaf ears while Hungary would continue its vetoes and obstructionism at the EU level.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h5 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Reintegrating Hungary<\/h5>\n\n\n\n<p>Conversely, a Kamala Harris victory would be a significant setback for Orb\u00e1n. Her administration could impose more and tougher sanctions related to corruption, or aimed at pressuring Orb\u00e1n to reconsider Hungary\u2019s tacit support for Russia\u2019s war effort and alignment with China. US diplomatic pressure would continue.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Budapest\u2019s relationship with Washington would deteriorate further in all likelihood. In the government-controlled media\u2014constituting up to 80 per cent of the national market\u2014the United States is frequently depicted as a global warmonger, primarily responsible for the war in Ukraine. The Biden administration is portrayed as an adversary and the US ambassador is often subjected to personal attacks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>However, a Democratic victory would also show the costs of Orb\u00e1n and Fidesz\u2019s partisan approach to the United States. This might prompt a limited reassessment and a cautious outreach to a Harris administration to reset relations. But whether this would go beyond symbolic gestures to meaningful moves, such as distancing from China and Russia is highly doubtful.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>A Harris administration would be well-advised to intensify pressure on the Orb\u00e1n regime, which faces declining domestic support and legitimacy. By demanding meaningful concessions for any reset sought by Orb\u00e1n, it would work toward reintegrating Hungary as a reliable transatlantic security partner and enhance the prospects of a democratic transition in the country.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-text-color has-background has-cyan-bluish-gray-background-color has-cyan-bluish-gray-color is-style-wide\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p><em>This article <\/em><em>was co-authored by <strong>Zsuzsanna V\u00e9gh<\/strong> and<\/em> <em>is part of series in which German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMF) experts from Central and Eastern Europe set out the implications of a Harris or Trump win in the US presidential election for the countries in the region.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-text-color has-background has-cyan-bluish-gray-background-color has-cyan-bluish-gray-color is-style-wide\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Photo: Viktor Orb\u00e1n with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky at an EU Council meeting earlier this year. \u00a9 <a href=\"https:\/\/newsroom.consilium.europa.eu\/permalink\/p189030\">European Union<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-text-color has-background has-cyan-bluish-gray-background-color has-cyan-bluish-gray-color is-style-wide\"\/>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Hungary\u2019s government clearly wants the former US president to return to the White House and has been cultivating him and his wing of the Republican party.<span class=\"excerpt-hellip\"> [\u2026]<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":19431,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[6674,7994,6931,21,6633,6320,7992,356,7993,7636,7166,6603,7991,6664],"class_list":["post-19430","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-opinion","tag-china","tag-danube-institute","tag-donald-trump","tag-economy-politics","tag-european-union","tag-featured","tag-heritage-foundation","tag-hungary","tag-international-investment-bank","tag-kamala-harris","tag-peter-magyar","tag-russia","tag-us-presidential-election-2024","tag-viktor-orban"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/reinvantage-dev.eonserver.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19430","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/reinvantage-dev.eonserver.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/reinvantage-dev.eonserver.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/reinvantage-dev.eonserver.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/reinvantage-dev.eonserver.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=19430"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/reinvantage-dev.eonserver.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19430\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/reinvantage-dev.eonserver.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/19431"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/reinvantage-dev.eonserver.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=19430"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/reinvantage-dev.eonserver.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=19430"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/reinvantage-dev.eonserver.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=19430"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}