{"id":19443,"date":"2024-11-01T07:34:00","date_gmt":"2024-11-01T07:34:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/reinvantage-dev.eonserver.com\/?p=19443"},"modified":"2024-11-01T07:34:00","modified_gmt":"2024-11-01T07:34:00","slug":"the-baltic-countries-want-time-and-stability-from-washington","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/reinvantage-dev.eonserver.com\/?p=19443","title":{"rendered":"The Baltic countries want time and stability from Washington"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><strong>Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania await the presidential election in the United States with anxiety. With the politicisation of US support for Ukraine and Donald Trump\u2019s questioning of NATO\u2019s mutual-defence obligation, the future of European and transatlantic security seems at stake for the three Baltic countries.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Bordering Russia and constantly subjected to its threats, few alliance members are as exposed to the consequences of a transatlantic rift as Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Their security dependence on the United States shapes their thinking on the election. While some other countries consider how to &#8216;Trump-proof&#8217; NATO, they\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.baltictimes.com\/latvia_will_have_its_hands_full_regardless_of_the_outcome_of_the_us_presidential_election_-_rinkevics\/\">emphasise<\/a>\u00a0their\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.lrt.lt\/en\/news-in-english\/19\/2322193\/lithuanian-president-vows-to-seek-continued-us-presence-in-the-region-if-trump-elected\">commitment<\/a>\u00a0to working with whoever is elected.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-text-color has-background has-cyan-bluish-gray-background-color has-cyan-bluish-gray-color is-style-wide\"\/>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li><a href=\"https:\/\/emerging-europe.com\/opinion\/can-eastern-europe-innovate-in-defence-sector\/\">Eastern Europe: Under pressure to succeed in defence and innovation<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/emerging-europe.com\/analysis\/baltics-lead-the-charge-as-emerging-europe-bags-several-of-the-eus-top-jobs\/\">Baltics lead the charge as emerging Europe bags several of the EU\u2019s top jobs<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/emerging-europe.com\/analysis\/once-considered-peripheral-cee-has-become-integral-to-the-eus-economic-wellbeing\/\">Once considered peripheral, CEE has become integral to the EU\u2019s economic wellbeing<\/a><\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-text-color has-background has-cyan-bluish-gray-background-color has-cyan-bluish-gray-color is-style-wide\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p>The three Baltic countries recognize that the United States\u2019 role in Europe is and will keep changing regardless of the result, due to its intensifying systemic rivalry with China and growing focus on the Indo-Pacific. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>At the same time, most Baltic officials hope that the country\u2019s democratic institutions and government bureaucracy will constrain the next president in making radical policy changes. For them, the key impact will be on the evolution of the ongoing shift in transatlantic relations and how this is managed in Washington. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The critical test will be Ukraine. While President Joe Biden\u2019s early leadership in responding to Russia\u2019s invasion confirmed that the United States is indispensable, they have found his risk-averse approach ultimately disappointing. Former and current Baltic officials have recently signed an\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/kyivindependent.com\/open-letter-president-biden-this-is-how-you-can-uphold-your-legacy-by-supporting-ukraine\/\">open letter<\/a>\u00a0urging Biden to \u201cnot tarnish his legacy\u201d by restricting the use of Western weapons against targets inside Russia and by failing to supply Kyiv with additional arms.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>When it comes to Ukraine, the Baltic countries want not only to \u201ckeep the Americans in\u201d but also to see it shift to seeking \u201cpeace through strength\u201d. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>It is uncertain whether either candidate would do so. Kamala Harris has repeated the pledge of the administration of which she is part to stand with Ukraine \u201cas long as it takes\u201d and criticised Donald Trump for being ready to pressure Kyiv to negotiate with Moscow. Yet her campaign has been vague on a Ukraine strategy. Likely members of her administration, such as\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.urm.lt\/en\/news\/928\/landsbergis-after-a-meeting-with-p.h.-gordon-the-partnership-between-lithuania-and-the-u.s.-is-exceptional.-together-with-the-u.s.-we-are-strengthening-the-front-for-democracies-not-only-in-europe-but-also-in-the-indo-pacific-region:43124\">Phil Gordon<\/a>, would be expected to also favour a careful, pragmatic approach.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>By contrast, some in the Baltic countries believe that Trump\u2019s aggressive approach to deal-making means that his administration might ramp up pressure on Russia in seeking the quick end to the war he has talked about. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This, however, is predicated on there being such-minded officials in his administration\u2014for example, Mike Pompeo and\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.foreignaffairs.com\/united-states\/return-peace-strength-trump-obrien\">Robert O\u2019Brien<\/a>\u2014and ignores concerns about Trump\u2019s ability to follow through on actions after any negotiated peace would inevitably require. More fundamentally, this relies on faith in Trump\u2019s commitment to US allies\u2014or to his own words. The likelier scenario is that Ukraine would simply be put under pressure rather than empowered.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h5 class=\"wp-block-heading\">&#8216;Keep the Americans in&#8217;<\/h5>\n\n\n\n<p>In terms of European security, the Baltic countries seek to \u201ckeep the Americans in\u201d while recognising its shifting priorities. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>They do so by supporting it within and beyond NATO. Within the alliance, they\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.politico.com\/news\/2024\/07\/09\/nato-baltic-defense-ministers-trump-00167069\">amplify<\/a>\u00a0Washington\u2019s demands that European members should contribute more, and they emphasise that their defence spending reaches well above the required two per cent of GDP and that they contribute\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.wilsoncenter.org\/article\/baltic-states-contributions-ukraine\">most<\/a>\u00a0to support Ukraine relative to the size of their economies. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>They also plan to build on existing regional cooperation mechanisms, such as the\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.congress.gov\/bill\/118th-congress\/house-bill\/2922#:~:text=The%20goals%20of%20this%20initiative,systems%20and%20integrated%20air%20and\">Baltic Security Initiative Act<\/a>, and to leverage their ties with larger European allies. This is the case with Lithuania\u2019s\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.urm.lt\/storage\/main\/public\/uploads\/2024\/05\/2024-04-22-javstrategijagalutinis.pdf\">intention<\/a>\u00a0to establish a 2+1 framework with Germany and the United States, given the planned deployment of a German brigade in the country.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Baltic governments also seek to keep the United States attentive to their needs by supporting it in constraining China\u2019s global assertiveness. While Lithuania has been the most vocal in this, pursuing close ties with Taiwan and at times a hardline\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.eesc.lt\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/08\/eesc-review-lithuanias-decoupling-from-china-against-the-backdrop.pdf\">decoupling<\/a>\u00a0agenda, all three countries have taken measures to address economic dependence and\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/raport.valisluureamet.ee\/2024\/en\/6-china\/6-3-the-advance-of-chinese-technology\/\">technology<\/a>\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.ft.com\/content\/b72069ec-e748-46f8-a936-de22a7446238\">risks<\/a>\u00a0with regard to China. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>They have also pushed the rest of the EU to do the same; for example, by withdrawing from the 17+1 cooperation format with China and\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/business\/autos-transportation\/how-eu-governments-plan-vote-chinese-ev-tariffs-2024-10-04\/\">voting<\/a>\u00a0in favour of tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles. Showing their alignment with the United States is not the only reason for this stance (for example, Beijing\u2019s support for Russia is a critical\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.ui.se\/globalassets\/ui.se-eng\/publications\/other-publications\/etnc-2024_national-perspectives-on-europes-de-risking-from-china.pdf\">source of tension<\/a>), but this consideration is more or less explicit in their decision-making.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania hope that this approach will win them favour with any US administration. Yet, while they may adjust to Trump\u2019s transactionalism, he would surely seek again to pressure European countries on burden-sharing and to pursue an aggressive trade policy toward the EU, which would be highly problematic for them. By contrast, they expect that Harris would fulfil her promise of continuity in commitment to NATO and engagement in Europe.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h5 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Constructive cooperation would be much likelier under Harris<\/h5>\n\n\n\n<p>The Baltic countries\u2019 ability to make their case also depends on reaching the right audience in Washington. They are familiar and have enjoyed close relations with the transatlanticist and neoconservative networks there but have made limited inroads with the more isolationist elements of the Trump coalition or with the \u201cpragmatic internationalists\u201d in Harris\u2019s orbit. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Baltic figures occupying senior relevant EU posts\u2014Kaja Kallas as EU\u2019s top diplomat, Andrius Kubilius as defense commissioner, and Jovita Neliup\u0161ien\u0117 as EU ambassador to the United States\u2014may help in this regard.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>While they agree with Washington on limiting the risks in economic relations with geopolitical adversaries like China, the Baltic countries are also wary of a turn to protectionism in the United States, not least because it could embolden protectionists in the EU. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>At the same time, some hope the three countries could benefit from Washington\u2019s emphasis on nearshoring, but there are concerns as to how attractive they would be to US investors. Their preferred solution would be a transatlantic free trade area, but this would remain out of reach under Harris or Trump. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Their fallback position has been to support frameworks that help stabilise and coordinate EU and US positions, such as the Trade and Technology Council launched in 2021. Here, constructive cooperation would be much likelier under Harris than Trump, given the latter\u2019s threats to impose a global tariff and propensity to apply economic pressure on the EU.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In sum, the Baltic governments would prefer a carefully managed process for the evolution of the transatlantic relationship that gives European countries time to build up their defence capacities and does not disrupt mutually beneficial cooperation. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This may also explain the clear preference for Harris among the Baltic\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/news.postimees.ee\/8116205\/survey-baltic-residents-prefer-harris-as-next-us-president\">publics<\/a>, which believe that she would be better for the United States\u2019 global clout. These two factors suggest that the Baltic capitals hope for a Harris victory, even if they will seek productive cooperation with either winner and see neither as a panacea.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-text-color has-background has-cyan-bluish-gray-background-color has-cyan-bluish-gray-color is-style-wide\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p><em>This article is part of series in which German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMF) experts from Central and Eastern Europe set out the implications of a Harris or Trump win in the US presidential election for the countries in the region.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-text-color has-background has-cyan-bluish-gray-background-color has-cyan-bluish-gray-color is-style-wide\"\/>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania await the presidential election in the United States with anxiety. With the politicisation of US support for Ukraine and Donald Trump\u2019s questioning<span class=\"excerpt-hellip\"> [\u2026]<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":19444,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[7997,6666,6931,21,6588,6320,7636,6615,385,6596,420,6668],"class_list":["post-19443","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-opinion","tag-baltic-security-initiative-act","tag-defence","tag-donald-trump","tag-economy-politics","tag-estonia","tag-featured","tag-kamala-harris","tag-latvia","tag-lithuania","tag-nato","tag-ukraine","tag-united-states"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/reinvantage-dev.eonserver.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19443","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/reinvantage-dev.eonserver.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/reinvantage-dev.eonserver.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/reinvantage-dev.eonserver.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/reinvantage-dev.eonserver.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=19443"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/reinvantage-dev.eonserver.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19443\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/reinvantage-dev.eonserver.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/19444"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/reinvantage-dev.eonserver.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=19443"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/reinvantage-dev.eonserver.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=19443"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/reinvantage-dev.eonserver.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=19443"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}