{"id":19556,"date":"2024-12-09T04:32:00","date_gmt":"2024-12-09T04:32:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/reinvantage-dev.eonserver.com\/?p=19556"},"modified":"2024-12-09T04:32:00","modified_gmt":"2024-12-09T04:32:00","slug":"romania-dodges-a-bullet","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/reinvantage-dev.eonserver.com\/?p=19556","title":{"rendered":"Romania dodges a bullet"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><strong>Heavens did not fall. Romania did not, on December 8, elect an openly pro-Russia president.&nbsp;<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>With the diaspora already voting in the second round of the country\u2019s presidential election, Romania\u2019s Constitutional Court on December 6 took the unprecedented step of annulling the result of the election\u2019s first round, citing illegal use of digital technologies including artificial intelligence, as well as undeclared sources of campaign funding.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The second round was immediately cancelled, and the entire presidential election process will now be rerun, most likely in March next year. Until then, incumbent Klaus Iohannis will almost certainly remain in office.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-text-color has-background has-cyan-bluish-gray-background-color has-cyan-bluish-gray-color is-style-wide\"\/>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li><a href=\"https:\/\/emerging-europe.com\/opinion\/why-brussels-and-markets-should-not-be-that-worried-about-romania-in-2025\/\">Why Brussels and the markets should not be (that) worried about Romania in 2025<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/emerging-europe.com\/opinion\/rethinking-the-fight-against-disinformation-in-the-black-sea-region\/\">Rethinking the fight against disinformation in the Black Sea region<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/emerging-europe.com\/briefing\/romania-faces-parliamentary-stalemate\/\">Romania faces parliamentary stalemate<\/a><\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-text-color has-background has-cyan-bluish-gray-background-color has-cyan-bluish-gray-color is-style-wide\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p>At the centre of events is C\u0103lin Georgescu (pictured above), running as an independent with the backing of three extremist parties, who won the first round with 22 per cent of the vote. Georgescu has been <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bbc.com\/news\/articles\/c9dlw5pq967o\">accused<\/a> of holding pro-Russian, fascist views. He was due to face the broadly progressive, pro-European Elena Lasconi, leader of the Save Romania Union (USR), in the run-off. &nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Lasconi took 19 per cent in the first round, just a few thousand votes ahead of the country\u2019s prime minister, Marcel Ciolacu, the pre-election favourite to become president.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In a statement, Georgescu, who symbolically attempted to vote at his local polling station on election day, said he would challenge the decision at the country\u2019s supreme court, the High Court of Cassation and Justice. He said it was \u201cunreal\u201d that nine constitutional judges could overturn the votes of millions of Romanians. &#8220;It&#8217;s basically a coup,&#8221; he added.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Lasconi, whom the latest opinion poll had suggested had a narrow lead,&nbsp;also objected to the annulment of the election process, condemning the court&#8217;s ruling as &#8220;illegal&#8221; and &#8220;immoral&#8221;, saying &#8220;today is the moment when the Romanian state has trampled on democracy&#8221;.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>&#8220;Whether we like it or not, from a legal and legitimate point of view, nine million Romanian citizens, both in the country and in the diaspora, have expressed their preference for a certain candidate. We cannot ignore their will,&#8221; she said.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h5 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Russian interference&nbsp;<\/h5>\n\n\n\n<p>However, the evidence suggesting that the playing field had been skewed in Georgescu\u2019s favour appears overwhelming.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>On Wednesday, Iohannis declassified intelligence documents from the Supreme Council for National Defence (CSAT) suggesting that almost 800 TikTok accounts created by a \u2018foreign state\u2019 in 2016 were suddenly activated last month to full capacity, all backing Georgescu.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Another 25,000 TikTok accounts, used to amplify Georgescu\u2019s campaign, which was conducted almost exclusively on the social media platform, had become active only two weeks before the first round.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Romanian foreign intelligence said Russia was the \u2018enemy state\u2019 involved and had engaged in hybrid attacks including tens of thousands of cyber attacks and other sabotage of \u2018electoral infrastructure\u2019.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h5 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Now for a government&nbsp;<\/h5>\n\n\n\n<p>Precisely what happens next is unclear. Iohannis, who cannot run for a third term, said late on December 6 that he would remain in office until a new president is elected. First, Romania\u2019s new parliament (<a href=\"https:\/\/emerging-europe.com\/briefing\/romania-faces-parliamentary-stalemate\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">a parliamentary election<\/a>&nbsp;was held on December 1)&nbsp;needs to be sworn in, and a government formed.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>A pro-EU coalition comprising Lasconi\u2019s USR, Ciolacu\u2019s Social Democrats (PSD), the Liberals (PNL) and the Union of Hungarians in Romania (UDMR) had in principle&nbsp;agreed to form a national unity government to counter a potential Georgescu presidency, but the USR suggested on Friday that it would not now participate in any government that includes PSD, which it believes is behind the court\u2019s decision to scrap the election.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>However, although the court is dominated by PSD-linked judges, at least three of its nine members have no links to the party, and its decision to scrap the election was unanimous.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>PSD, PNL and UDMR\u2014together with several MPs who represent Romania\u2019s various ethnic minorities, may have the numbers to govern without USR, at least in the Chamber of Deputies, the lower house of parliament. In the upper chamber, the Senate, it is less clear if they can cobble together a majority.\u00a0It is also not certain that PNL will want to continue governing with PSD.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The three extremist parties which backed Georgescu, Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR), SOS Romania, and the Young People\u2019s party (POT), hold around 30 per cent of seats.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h5 class=\"wp-block-heading\">A new election&nbsp;<\/h5>\n\n\n\n<p>Whether Georgescu will or will not be allowed to run in the new election\u2014the date of which will be set by the new parliament\u2014is in doubt. There have been suggestions that he may even be arrested and charged with treason.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>What\u2019s almost certain is that PM Ciolacu will stand again, this time hoping to avoid the humiliation of being relegated to third place\u2014the first time since Romania reestablished democracy in 1990 that a PSD candidate has failed to make the run-off.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Lasconi is likely to again be the USR candidate, but former PM Nicolae Ciuc\u0103, whose disastrous candidacy on behalf of the PNL ended in a humiliating fifth place and just 8.7 per cent of the vote could be replaced by Ilie Bolojan, mayor of the western Romanian city of Oradea and now de facto leader of the party.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>George Simion, leader of AUR, is another certain candidate and, should Georgescu not be allowed to run, will be the main &#8216;sovereigntist\u2019 candidate. SOS Romania\u2019s founder, Diana \u0218o\u0219oac\u0103, was barred from running by the Constitutional Court for her pro-Russian stance that it said threatened Romania\u2019s national security. It is, like much about the new election, unclear if she will remain barred from standing.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Mircea Geoan\u0103, former NATO deputy secretary general, is unlikely to stand again having come in a disappointing sixth place.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Joker in the pack could be the popular mayor of Bucharest Nicu\u0219or Dan, who has already been touted as a unity, pro-EU candidate. &nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Dan, founder of the USR before leaving the party over policy disputes, could be backed by both the USR and PNL (as he was when winning the Bucharest mayoralty in 2020), but it is highly doubtful that PSD would support him.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-text-color has-background has-cyan-bluish-gray-background-color has-cyan-bluish-gray-color is-style-wide\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Photo: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/photo.php?fbid=498958416469011&amp;set=pb.100090645703108.-2207520000&amp;type=3\">C\u0103lin Georgescu official Facebook page<\/a>.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-text-color has-background has-cyan-bluish-gray-background-color has-cyan-bluish-gray-color is-style-wide\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center\"><em>If you would like to further discuss the current political situation in Romania, and what it means for business and investment,&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/emerging-europe.com\/contact\/\">get in touch<\/a>.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center\"><em>This service is part of our&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/emerging-europe.com\/strategic-advantage\/\">Strategic Advantage<\/a>&nbsp;programme, which offers companies and organisations unrivalled market intelligence and expert insights that help you make smarter decisions.&nbsp;<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-text-color has-background has-cyan-bluish-gray-background-color has-cyan-bluish-gray-color is-style-wide\"\/>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Heavens did not fall. Romania did not, on December 8, elect an openly pro-Russia president.&nbsp; With the diaspora already voting in the second round of the<span class=\"excerpt-hellip\"> [\u2026]<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":19557,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[8055,21,8044,6320,8043,7421,6598,7422,8085,7426,7425,237,7424,6603,7427],"class_list":["post-19556","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uncategorized","tag-calin-georgescu","tag-economy-politics","tag-elena-lasconi","tag-featured","tag-george-simion","tag-marcel-ciolacu","tag-mircea-geoana","tag-nicolae-ciuca","tag-nicusor-dan","tag-pnl","tag-psd","tag-romania","tag-romania-presidential-election-2024","tag-russia","tag-usr"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/reinvantage-dev.eonserver.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19556","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/reinvantage-dev.eonserver.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/reinvantage-dev.eonserver.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/reinvantage-dev.eonserver.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/reinvantage-dev.eonserver.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=19556"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/reinvantage-dev.eonserver.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19556\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/reinvantage-dev.eonserver.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/19557"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/reinvantage-dev.eonserver.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=19556"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/reinvantage-dev.eonserver.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=19556"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/reinvantage-dev.eonserver.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=19556"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}