{"id":19635,"date":"2024-12-24T07:56:00","date_gmt":"2024-12-24T07:56:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/reinvantage-dev.eonserver.com\/?p=19635"},"modified":"2024-12-24T07:56:00","modified_gmt":"2024-12-24T07:56:00","slug":"why-regime-change-in-azerbaijan-is-possible","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/reinvantage-dev.eonserver.com\/?p=19635","title":{"rendered":"Why regime change in Azerbaijan is possible"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

As the recent ousting of Syrian dictator Bashar Al-Assad proves, no autocracy is permanent\u2014and that includes the regime of Azeri President Ilham Aliyev.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In late November, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS)\u2014an outgrowth of the now-defunct Al-Nusra Front and Syria\u2019s main opposition movement\u2014launched a lightning offensive<\/a> from Aleppo to Damascus that culminated in the eventual deposition and forced exile<\/a> of the country\u2019s deeply unpopular head-of-state Bashar al-Assad two weeks later.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is still unclear why his blindsided benefactors, Russia and Iran, decided against mounting a counterinsurgency and simply abandoned \u2018Project Syria\u2019, which is estimated to have cost them anywhere between 30-50 billion US dollars each<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Either way, the House of Assad\u2019s abrupt downfall after 53 years of iron-fisted, murderous rule begs the question as to what lies in store for Azerbaijan\u2019s ruling Aliyev clan\u2014another dynastic regime over which Russo-Iranian influence looms large.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

True to form, both Moscow and Tehran hinted at the involvement of their all-purpose bogeyman\u2014the Collective West\u2014in HTS\u2019 takeover of Syria.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

That said, the outsized role of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdo\u011fan in orchestrating the coup is not lost on the Russians and Iranians. Contrary to 2015, though, when Putin responded the downing of a Sukhoi Su-24 warplane by T\u00fcrkiye with draconian action<\/a> such as prohibiting tourists from travelling there and banning certain imports, he no longer has the bandwidth to adopt a similar sledgehammer approach vis-\u00e0-vis one of Russia\u2019s most important sanctions circumvention hubs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Besides being permissive of illicit financial flows and featuring on the FATF grey list until<\/a> mid-2024, T\u00fcrkiye hosts a sizeable Russian diaspora while its flagship carrier Turkish Airlines operates regular flights to major Russian cities<\/a>. The same line of reasoning can be applied to Iran, whose nationals are subject to equally lax entry requirements and use T\u00fcrkiye as an end-run around the US-led \u2018maximum pressure campaign\u2019.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Turkish appendage<\/h5>\n\n\n\n

With the deck stacked against them and BRICS members set to face punitive measures<\/a> for bypassing the dollar once Donald Trump assumes office, Putin and the mullahs are likely to come up with a measured retaliation which puts Erdo\u011fan in his place without necessarily dealing him a knockout blow and upending the status quo.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

One such \u2018middle ground\u2019 option is closing ranks to topple Ilham Aliyev. It is no secret that Azerbaijan has, in recent years, become an appendage of T\u00fcrkiye under the \u2018one nation, two states\u2019 framework.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Besides Turkish military support and in particular, its Bayraktar TB2 UAVs proving pivotal in Azerbaijan\u2019s victory over Armenia during the 44-day Second Nagorno-Karabakh War, the Caspian nation has joined blocs featuring T\u00fcrkiye such as the Organisation of Turkic States and the D-8<\/a> but shown no interest<\/a> in acceding to Russian-led alliances like the Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO) and Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) which Moscow will almost certainly hold against Baku in due course.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So far, the CSTO has functioned as nothing more than a glorified \u2018OMON\u2019 outfit whose sole raison d\u2019\u00eatre is to quash popular uprisings across the post-Soviet space\u2014namely Belarus<\/a> in 2020 and Kazakhstan<\/a> in 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, unlike Kazakh President Kassym-Jomrat Tokayev who at least sought to create an illusion of cleaning house and introducing social reforms following the \u2018Bloody January\u2019 unrest<\/a>, Aliyev has chosen to go down the path of Belarusian strongman Alexander Lukashenko in crushing civil society and press freedom.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Overseas-based Azeri academics critical of their government like LSE Professor Gubad Ibadoghlu<\/a> and PhD candidate Bahruz Samadov<\/a> have been arbitrarily locked up upon returning home and handed lengthy prison sentences for \u2018high treason\u2019.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Local authorities are also intensifying their crackdown on independent, anti-establishment media outlets\u2014the latest high-profile case being the arrest of five journalists from Meydan TV which even drew condemnation<\/a> from US Secretary of State Antony Blinken.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Democracy? No thanks<\/h5>\n\n\n\n

Aliyev, for his part, has remained wilfully blind to the democratic headwinds sweeping across \u2018Greater Eurasia\u2019 and made the job of his ill-wishers that much easier by not giving an inch.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

His obstinance may well come home to roost and leave him stewing in his own juice, not least by virtue of the bridges he has burned in recent years. Azerbaijan\u2019s most notable falling out has been with France<\/a>, ostensibly over the latter throwing its weight behind Armenia during the armed conflict in Karabakh as well as accusing<\/a> Azerbaijan of ethnically cleansing some 120,000 Armenians after seizing the previously disputed enclave.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Baku, in turn, is alleged<\/a> to have meddled in the internal affairs of far-flung French protectorates New Caledonia and Mayotte<\/a> by fanning the flames of pro-separatist riots. Aliyev has also suggested that the EU\u2019s monitoring mission along the Armenia-Azerbaijan border is a front for NATO and demanded its withdrawal<\/a> as a precondition for signing a peace treaty.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Interestingly, he also took aim at and essentially hounded out<\/a> Russia\u2019s peacekeeping contingent there before their five-year term was set to lapse in 2025.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Let the chips fall<\/h5>\n\n\n\n

Although the Russians favour predictably and continuity in their \u2018backyard\u2019, they are not monetarily or emotionally invested in Azerbaijan nor do they regard its current incumbent as indispensable.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the cusp of signing a historic \u2018comprehensive treaty\u201d with Iran which includes<\/a> mutual security guarantees as well as the continued provision of drones, munitions and spare parts for its ongoing \u2018special military operation\u2019, the Kremlin will gladly look the other way and let the chips fall where they may should an Iranian-sponsored revolution unfold in Azerbaijan.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As far as China is concerned, an extremist vigilante filling the ensuing power vacuum would, by no means, be an unwelcome development so long as they are able to sweet-talk those in charge into \u2018win-win\u2019 cooperation<\/a> and not pulling out of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, Armenia has forged strategic partnerships with key regional players like India<\/a> and Iran<\/a>\u2014not to mention its influential lobbies in Western Capitals that consistently advocate for holding Aliyev\u2019s feet to the fire over the grave human rights breaches he continues to commit with total impunity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Yerevan and Tehran remain united in their vehement opposition<\/a> to the Zangezur Corridor\u2014a transport artery that would grant Azerbaijan proper unfettered access to its exclave Nakhchivan and also connect Baku to T\u00fcrkiye\u2019s Kars Province by passing through Armenia, albeit at the expense of \u201credrawing  borders\u201d, according to Iran.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

That said, the controversial logistical route is far from the only flashpoint in its relationship with Azerbaijan. Increasingly cosy ties<\/a> between the Aliyev administration and Israel remain another major bone of contention. Armenia\u2019s move to recognise<\/a> Palestine in the aftermath of the October 7, 2023 Massacre was largely down to the state-of-the-art weaponry and spyware Tel Aviv furnished Baku with in the buildup to the 2020 conflagration.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Islamic Republic, by contrast, is livid at Azerbaijan for supplying Israel with 40 per cent of its total crude oil imports<\/a> via the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline and, by extension, helping underwrite the Israeli Defence Forces\u2019 (IDF) ongoing aggression throughout the Levant.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Foul play?<\/h5>\n\n\n\n

Needless to say, Iran\u2019s ruling elite considers Azerbaijan a \u2018brotherly\u2019 state\u2014inasmuch as they deem it sovereign at all. From their standpoint, having a \u2018Zionist nest of spies\u2019 stationed in a fellow Shia-majority jurisdiction is an even more bitter pill to swallow than the Abraham Accords.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is worth remembering that on January 27, 2023, a lone gunman opened fire at Azerbaijan\u2019s Embassy in Tehran and killed<\/a> its security chief a few months after Baku announced plans to establish a diplomatic mission<\/a> in Tel Aviv.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Former President Ebrahim Raisi\u2019s helicopter crash<\/a> on the way back from a meeting with his Azeri counterpart last May at a mountainous border region did little to assuage concerns among senior Iranian officials of Aliyev being Israel\u2019s point man in the South Caucasus, notwithstanding the harsh weather conditions to which the \u2018butcher of Tehran\u2019s\u2019 sudden death was attributed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

What aroused further suspicion of possible foul play was that Iran\u2019s then Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, who spoke fluent Arabic and played an integral role in revitalising his country\u2019s ties with the Persian Gulf states, also perished in the accident<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The theocratic clerics style themselves as \u2018chess players\u2019 and subscribe to the adage that \u201crevenge is a dish best served cold\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Nonetheless, it is just a matter of time before their \u2018strategic patience\u2019 wears thin given the calamitous year they went through. Not only have their regional proxies turned to dust and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) been reduced to a spent force, but Iran has suffered humiliating setbacks on its territory such as the January 3rd terrorist attack<\/a> at a commemoration ceremony for the slain Quds Force General Qasem Soleimani in Kerman and the Mossad-led assassination<\/a> of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran during newly-elected Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian\u2019s inauguration.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The fact that Haniyeh was taken out at a guesthouse belonging to Ayatollah Ali Khamenei served as a warning shot to the supreme leader himself. A successful regime change operation in Azerbaijan is Iran\u2019s best bet to outfox and claim much-needed bragging rights over an emboldened Israel. The Islamic Republic has a knack for exporting its ideology by preying on the vulnerabilities of downtrodden masses in neighbouring countries.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Same fate as the Assads?<\/h5>\n\n\n\n

The industrial scale of corruption<\/a> that has occurred under Aliyev\u2019s watch and allowed him to allegedly amass<\/a> a vast \u2018empire of hidden wealth\u2019\u2014including luxury off-shore properties in coveted destinations like London and Dubai\u2014could consign Azerbaijan\u2019s first family to the same fate as the al-Assads once the word is out.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Already on a collision course with the European Union<\/a> and the United States<\/a> over their finger-wagging and partisanship while not exactly on the best of terms with either Russia or Iran, Aliyev is fast running out of allies who would be willing to step in when his stranglehold on the lawless petrostate is threatened.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Photo: Ilham Aliyev arriving at a meeting of the European Political Community in 2022. <\/em>\u00a9<\/em> European Union.<\/em><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

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As the recent ousting of Syrian dictator Bashar Al-Assad proves, no autocracy is permanent\u2014and that includes the regime of Azeri President Ilham Aliyev. In late November, [\u2026]<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":19636,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[343,6657,6676,6787,6931,21,7978,6320,8097,6701,8188,7481,6763,8189,7038,6603,6748,6668],"class_list":["post-19635","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-opinion","tag-armenia","tag-azerbaijan","tag-brics","tag-csto","tag-donald-trump","tag-economy-politics","tag-eeu","tag-featured","tag-geopolitics","tag-ilham-aliyev","tag-iran","tag-israel","tag-nagorno-karabakh","tag-organisation-of-turkic-states","tag-recep-tayyip-erdogan","tag-russia","tag-turkey","tag-united-states"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/reinvantage-dev.eonserver.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19635","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/reinvantage-dev.eonserver.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/reinvantage-dev.eonserver.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/reinvantage-dev.eonserver.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/reinvantage-dev.eonserver.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=19635"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/reinvantage-dev.eonserver.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19635\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/reinvantage-dev.eonserver.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/19636"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/reinvantage-dev.eonserver.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=19635"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/reinvantage-dev.eonserver.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=19635"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/reinvantage-dev.eonserver.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=19635"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}