Ukraine prepares for winter

Catch up quickly with the stories from Central and Eastern Europe that matter, this week led by news of Ukraine’s struggle to keep the lights on.

Russia’s war on Ukraine

Ukrainian authorities are scrambling to assess the damage caused by one of the biggest Russian airstrikes of the war earlier this week, which targeted energy infrastructure across the country, further crippling a sector targeted by Moscow multiple times in the spring.

While much of Ukraine is still experiencing the tail end of a very hot summer, this week’s strikes have brought into focus concerns about the hard colder months that lie ahead.

“This winter is going to be tough, that’s for sure,” said Nataliia Shapoval, head of the Kyiv School of Economics Institute.

The frequent electricity cuts expected over the winter will probably cause a range of knock-on effects. Sustained power outages could prove disastrous for heavy industry in the east of the country, which has so far proved remarkably resilient despite more than two years of full-scale war.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky meanwhile said this week that his troops’ incursion into Russia’s Kursk region is part of a “victory plan” that he will present to US President Joe Biden next month.

Speaking at a forum on Tuesday, President Zelensky said the success of the plan would depend on President Biden and on whether the US would give Ukraine “what is in this plan or not, [and] whether we will be free to use this plan, or not”.

“It may sound too ambitious for some, but it is an important plan for us,” he added, saying that he would also show the plan to both US presidential candidates Kamala Harris and Donald Trump.

Ukraine this week secured relief on more than 20 billion US dollars of debt from private international bondholders, boosting Kyiv’s race to finance an intensifying war effort against Russia.

Almost all of Ukraine’s bondholders voted for a deal that will write down the face value of their debt by more than a third and free up 11 billion US dollars for the country’s finances over the next three years through reduced interest payments, Ukraine’s finance ministry said on Wednesday.

Ukraine is still also lobbying for more official financial support to backstop its war effort, on top of nearly 90 billion US dollars raised since Russia invaded in 2022. This has includes calls for loans to be funded by the proceeds of interest paid on Russia’s sanctioned central bank reserve assets.

Other news from the region

Bulgaria’s president on Tuesday called early parliamentary elections for October, in another effort to overcome the political impasse and economic woes plaguing the EU and NATO member. President Rumen Radev called the snap balloting for October 27—Bulgaria’s seventh election in three years. He also reappointed Dimitar Glavchev to lead the interim government until the vote. The interim Cabinet, largely the same as the incumbent one, took the oath in parliament. “The political crisis is not over,” Radev said ahead of the swearing-in ceremony.

Georgian President Salome Zourabichvili this week called the country’s upcoming parliamentary elections a “choice between Europe and Russia” for the South Caucasus nation. Zourabichvili’s statement came after she signed a decree announcing October 26 as the day for the parliamentary polls, saying that voters will have to “chose between war and peace” in the election. “The day of the decision, the day of choice, the day of survival is coming,” Zourabichvili said, stressing that the election will be “existential” for Georgia and will “define the country’s destiny for many years to come.”

Estonian renewable energy producer Sunly this week raised 300 million euros in debt financing to accelerate the construction of 1.3 GW of solar, wind and storage capacity across the Baltics and Poland. The financing, provided by Rivage Investment, Copenhagen Infrastructure Partners (CIP) and Norway’s Kommunal Landspensjonskasse, takes the total capital raised by Sunly to 765 million euros. Sunly wants to develop hybrid installations combining wind, solar and energy storage and a direct line to consumers, improving the stability of supply for industrial clients and boosting energy security.

Nordic and Baltic countries this week expressed concern over the potential security risk that Hungary could bring to the bloc by easing entry rules for nationals of Russia and Belarus. Budapest recently extended its National Card immigration scheme, originally available to Serbian and Ukrainian nationals, to EU candidate countries Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro, North Macedonia and Moldova, as well as Belarus and Russia. Foreign and interior ministers of the Baltic and Nordic states said that Hungary’s actions “may constitute a serious security risk”.

Spain meanwhile this week

Spain government meanwhile has blocked a 619 million euros takeover bid for the train maker Talgo from Hungarian consortium Ganz-Mavag due to national security concerns. “The cabinet has agreed today to not authorise the foreign direct investment in Talgo by Ganz-Mavag Europe Private Limited,” Spain’s economy ministry said in a statement. “The analysis has determined that authorising this operation would entail risks to national security and public order.” A spokesperson for Ganz-Mavag in Spain said the consortium would “take legal action, both in Spain and in Europe” against the decision.

Latvia should make conscription mandatory for women, the country’s defence minister said this week. “Moving toward comprehensive national defence, I support the mandatory conscription of women into the national defence service. 2028 could be the optimal time to start it,” Andris Sprūds posted on X, reiterating his comments in an interview with local media. Latvia reintroduced conscription only last year, after abolishing it in 2006. The country, which has a population of less than two million, selects conscripts at random and aims to have 4,000 soldiers by 2028.

Bratislava has discreetly withdrawn temporary protection from Artyom Marchevskyy, a Ukrainian-Israeli businessman linked to the pro-Russian influence network Voice of Europe after he fled to Slovakia from Czechia in April. Marchevskyy had been granted temporary refuge in Slovakia after fleeing Czech authorities, who placed him on their sanctions list in March for his alleged involvement with Voice of Europe. The platform, which initially presented itself as an independent media outlet, was exposed by Czech and Polish authorities in March as a pro-Russian propaganda network.

Opposition activists and others in Kazakhstan face unjustified state-imposed financial restrictions as a consequence of being prosecuted on overbroad extremist or terrorism-related criminal charges, Human Rights Watch said in a report this week. Human Rights Watch found that state-imposed financial restrictions are unjustified and inappropriate when applied to people who have not engaged in, instigated, or financed violence. Kazakhstan should exclude crimes qualified as “extremist” from automatic inclusion on its Financing Terrorism List, the organisation says.

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