The US election and Bulgaria

Intensifying the partnership between Sofia and Washington is the only way to prevent democratic backsliding and greater Russian influence in Bulgaria. The consequences of a Harris or a Trump administration would be very different.

Bulgaria’s ties with the United States have reached heights never thought possible at the end of the communist dictatorship in 1989.

Moscow’s once most loyal satellite has become one of the most important US allies on the Balkan peninsula. Most Bulgarians see Washington as their country’s most important geopolitical and military partner. Bulgaria joined NATO in 2004 and signed a defence cooperation agreement with the United States in 2006.

Their militaries jointly use bases in Bulgaria, which is vital for ensuring the safety of the country and the region.

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The United States has provided critical support to Bulgaria politically and economically as it moved forward in democratisation after communist rule, including by investing hundreds of millions of dollars through the US Agency for International Development (USAID).

This has helped strengthen the country’s rule of law, governance, civil society, and business environment. The United States has also become an important economic partner with bilateral trade increasing and a constantly rising number of companies present in the country, employing tens of thousands. 

The outcome of the US election will not radically affect the relationship between the two countries in the short term. They will continue to be partners across various fields including defence, energy, and trade. However, in the long run, the nature of the next US administration will be of key importance for Bulgaria. 

The crumbling status quo

Russia and its proxies in Bulgaria have continuously tried eroding its democracy to change its stance as a committed member of the EU and NATO.

These proxies are actors from the old, corrupt political status quo, who have been responsible for the unwillingness and inability since 1989 to combat Russian influence and corruption or to fully consolidate democracy.

The status quo started to crumble in 2020, and more so after the invasion of Ukraine in 2022, and with it Russia’s influence in the country. This has led to repeated snap elections, with the latest ones coming on October 27.

The repeated collapse of governments and the recent introduction of authoritarian measures like the Russia-style anti-LGBTQ+ law show that the status quo actors are trying to regain their position and are by no means defeated yet.

With a Kamala Harris presidency, the United States would certainly maintain the Biden administration’s approach, not least regarding commitment to NATO and help for Ukraine.

Since the invasion of Ukraine, Washington has placed more importance on Sofia as a security partner in the region. Bulgaria is rearming itself with US-made military equipment, most notably by signing a contract for Stryker armoured fighting vehicles in January, and the country’s hosts one the new multinational NATO battlegroups. A Harris administration would also mean continuity in US policy toward Europe, notably in support for democracy, civil society, and the rule of law, including in Bulgaria. 

By contrast, a new Donald Trump administration would presumably pursue isolationist and protectionist policies, and it would not prioritise relations with Europe. In this context, and given what Trump has said about supporting Ukraine and the role of NATO, his administration would not see Bulgaria as a key partner in the region.

Washington would also very likely stop treating support for democracy and civil society in countries like Bulgaria as something important. Ultimately, this would have negative consequences for the democracy and security prospects of Bulgaria and the region.

Weakening Russian influence

The stronger Bulgarian-US cooperation is, the weaker Russia’s influence through its proxies, and the healthier Bulgaria’s democracy. After the election, the United States will need not only to maintain the course of productive partnership but also to increase it where possible, and at least in the three core areas. 

First, military cooperation and US funds for it should be increased. This process needs to be intensified as Bulgaria desperately needs more US weapons and know-how to end its dependence on Soviet-era arms and to be prepared to face military threats efficiently.

Second, USAID should invest more in strengthening civil society and the rule of law in Bulgaria, given the passage of repressive laws. Civil society needs US support and expertise to maintain its role as a guarantor of a strong democracy. Moreover, the trend of greater investments in Bulgaria in recent years should be encouraged and supported by the US government, to the extent possible.

Third, the United States should consider sanctioning more Bulgarian politicians and officials associated with the old status quo through its Global Magnitsky Sanctions Programme.

Such sanctions help civil society combat corruption, and by extension Russia’s influence, which ultimately strengthens Bulgaria’s democracy. Washington has more than ever a crucial role in this as the EU has for years been unwilling to adequately address the issue of corruption in Bulgaria.

This article is part of series in which German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMF) experts from Central and Eastern Europe set out the implications of a Harris or Trump win in the US presidential election for the countries in the region.