Germany’s choice will define Europe’s path

The decisions made by the new Bundestag will determine whether Europe moves toward stronger unity and security, or risks deeper divisions and vulnerability.

Germany’s recent Bundestag elections on February 23 weren’t just crucial for Germans—they shaped the future for Ukraine amid its ongoing war with Russia, influenced EU hopefuls Georgia and Moldova, and impacted transatlantic relations.

Germany has long set the tone for Europe, both politically and financially. But understanding where Germany stands today means examining the long shadow cast by former Chancellor Angela Merkel.

It’s ironic that Chancellor Olaf Scholz, a Social Democrat, faced fierce criticism from Christian Democrat leader Friedrich Merz about Germany’s economic struggles and migration issues. After all, these crises largely began during Merkel’s 16-year tenure. Her policies, despite short-term gains, left Germany dangerously reliant on authoritarian states.

Under Merkel, trade ties with Russia and China peaked. Germany ignored clear security threats—most notably, the construction of the Nord Stream pipeline, significantly increasing dependence on Russian energy. Rejecting nuclear energy further played into Vladimir Putin’s hands, leaving Germany and Europe vulnerable to energy blackmail. Additionally, Merkel steered Germany’s powerful automotive industry toward China, cementing risky economic dependencies.

Germany’s huge budget surplus of 60 billion euros in 2018 contrasts sharply with Merkel’s decision to neglect defence spending, breaking NATO commitments and influencing others to follow suit. Even more troubling, Merkel allowed Huawei, a Chinese company suspected by the US of espionage, to manage Germany’s sensitive 5G infrastructure.

Migration

Her migration policy also reshaped Germany and Europe. Welcoming over a million refugees in 2015 alone drastically changed the political landscape, contributed to Brexit, strengthened reactionary forces, and continues to impact German society today.

Migration emerged as the central issue of the recent elections. Voters demanded stricter policies, with three main parties offering distinct approaches:

The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD), driven almost entirely by anti-immigrant sentiment, called for extreme measures: closed borders, no asylum rights, mass deportations, and an end to military support for Ukraine. Their views, including restoring cooperation with Russia, alarm many across Europe.

Olaf Scholz’s Social Democrats pushed for a balanced approach—limiting illegal migration but emphasising integration and solidarity within the EU. Scholz recognises migration isn’t Germany’s problem alone; countries like Greece and Italy face even greater pressures.

Christian Democrat Friedrich Merz sought a middle ground—controlled, qualified migration, tightening rules, and processing asylum seekers outside the EU. But even moderate proposals sparked controversy and backlash, potentially boosting support for the far-right AfD.

Germany now faces the danger of repeating the Netherlands’ recent experience, where blocked moderate immigration reforms led to the collapse of the government and a surge of extreme anti-migrant politics.

Scholz’s legacy

In the aftermath of the election, it’s worth noting that Scholz remains one of Europe’s most underrated leaders. His quiet effectiveness transformed Germany’s dangerous dependence on Russian energy far quicker than anticipated—by 2023 instead of the initially projected 2027. Imagine the consequences if Germany had continued funding Putin’s aggression until then.

Despite internal opposition within his own party, Scholz successfully made Germany Ukraine’s strongest European ally, and second globally only to the US. His careful balancing act prevented greater political instability, benefiting both Germany and Ukraine.

And let’s not forget Scholz’s powerful statement of support—his vision of ‘Europe from Lisbon to Tbilisi’—underscoring Germany’s backing of Georgia’s EU ambitions. Although Georgia’s current government may waste this historic opportunity, the country’s people will undoubtedly seize it.

Ultimately, Germany’s recent choice at the ballot box defines not just its own future, but Europe’s trajectory. The decisions made by the new Bundestag will determine whether Europe moves toward stronger unity and security, or risks deeper divisions and vulnerability. Europe awaits Germany’s next steps with both hope and concern.

Photo by Christian Lue on Unsplash.

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