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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has shuffled his pack ahead of what he has suggested will be “an extremely important autumn”.
Did he jump or was he pushed? While the motives behind this week’s resignation of Ukraine’s foreign minister, Dmytro Kuleba (pictured above), may not yet be known, what’s certain is that since September 4, Kuleba has no longer been Kyiv’s top diplomat.
That role is now occupied by Andrii Sybiha, a career diplomat who for several years worked as an advisor in Zelensky’s office.
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Kuleba’s resignation—submitted in a handwritten letter to the speaker of Ukraine’s parliament—came just a day after the news outlet Ukrainska Pravda reported that the foreign minister was about to be sacked as part of wider cabinet reshuffle.
His departure was the highest profile in a series of resignations that saw some ministers leave the cabinet, while others were reshuffled.
Former Deputy Prime Minister for European and Euro-Atlantic Integration Olha Stefanishyna has taken over the Justice Ministry (and will also head up Ukraine’s EU integration efforts), with former Justice Minister Denys Maliuska moving in the other direction.
Strategic Industries Minister Oleksandr Kamyshin meanwhile has taken on a presidential advisor role, with Herman Smetanin, CEO of arms company Ukroboronprom, replacing him.
As one of the most prominent faces in Ukraine’s global outreach efforts since Russia’s full-scale invasion in February 2022, Kuleba’s tenure has been marked by relentless diplomatic campaigns to secure military and financial support from the West. His face has become almost as familiar in the world’s major capitals as that of the Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelensky.
Zelensky has yet to comment directly on Kuleba’s resignation, but did say that he was refreshing his team in anticipation of “an extremely important autumn” and promised “a slightly different emphasis” in foreign and domestic policy, without providing details.
Diversifying support
Likely is that the resignation of Kuleba (who will probably be made ambassador to a major Ukrainian ally in due course) will trigger greater emphasis on the need to diversify Kyiv’s diplomatic partnerships and explore new avenues for support.
This could involve deepening relationships with non-Western countries, including nations in Asia, Africa, and Latin America, many of which have remained neutral or ambivalent towards its cause.
Ukraine may also need to prepare for a scenario where Western support becomes more conditional, particularly if public opinion in some countries begins to wane.
Securing long-term commitments for military and economic aid will require not only diplomatic skill but also concrete progress on the battlefield and in governance reforms.
Indeed, on the domestic front, the reshuffle aligns with Zelensky’s broader strategy of reform, particularly his push to increase efficiency within the government.
Zelensky has made doin so a cornerstone of his administration, especially as Ukraine seeks membership in the European Union. The president’s commitment to internal reform has been well-received by international donors, who have conditioned much of their financial support on Ukraine’s progress in streamlining its political system.
In this regard, the reshuffle of Zelensky’s cabinet should be seen as a move to shore up public trust and demonstrate the government’s seriousness about reform.
Strategic recalibration
Kuleba’s departure comes at a time when Ukraine’s military is locked in a grueling counteroffensive on Russian territory.
The war has reached a new stage, with neither side making significant territorial gains, while casualties and destruction continue to mount. Despite some breakthroughs on the battlefield, the Kursk counteroffensive has slowed, leading to concerns about the sustainability of Western support.
In this context, Kuleba’s resignation should be seen as part of a strategic recalibration. By bringing in new faces, Zelensky aims to streamline governance and infuse new life into Ukraine’s diplomatic efforts.
The move also underscores Ukraine’s understanding that the war effort is not only being fought on the battlefield but also in the realm of international diplomacy, where continued support from Western allies is vital.
The succession
Indeed, Kuleba’s resignation is a reminder that Ukraine’s battle for survival is as much about diplomacy as it is about military might.
His legacy will likely be defined by his success in rallying the world to Ukraine’s cause, but his successor will need to ensure that the momentum is not lost as the war enters perhaps its most difficult phase yet.
Kuleba’s resignation also raises concerns about whether his successor will be able to navigate the complexities of international diplomacy as effectively.
Throughout his tenure, Kuleba demonstrated an adeptness at using both diplomatic channels and public diplomacy to galvanize support for Ukraine. He was a frequent participant in international forums and adeptly leveraged media appearances to present Ukraine’s cause to the world.
His successor will need to exhibit the same level of energy and effectiveness to ensure that Ukraine remains a priority for Western capitals.
The new man
The appointment of Andrii Sybiha as that successor offers further insight into how Ukraine plans to move forward diplomatically.
Sybiha, a seasoned diplomat with significant experience in foreign policy, is expected to maintain the course set by Kuleba, particularly in bolstering Ukraine’s ties with the West.
Sybiha has served as a senior advisor in Zelensky’s office and played a crucial role in managing Ukraine’s diplomatic relationships throughout the war. He is “one of only a few insiders to have the president’s ear,” according to FT journalist Christopher Miller.
His appointment signals that there will be continuity in Ukraine’s diplomatic strategy, especially regarding its partnership with the United States, NATO, and the European Union.
Nevertheless, while Sybiha is likely to continue advocating for more military support, advanced weaponry, and economic aid from the West, he faces the challenge of keeping Ukraine’s allies engaged as the war grinds on.
Western support, while still strong, has shown signs of strain, with some countries grappling with their own political and economic pressures. Maintaining this support will require a delicate balance of diplomacy, persuasion, and the ability to adapt to changing international dynamics.
War of attrition
The war in Ukraine is increasingly viewed as a conflict of attrition, with neither side able to deliver a decisive blow. In such a scenario, the role of foreign diplomacy becomes even more crucial.
Ukraine’s ability to maintain and expand its alliances will be vital for sustaining military operations and economic stability.
The question now is whether Sybiha can manage to keep Ukraine at the forefront of the global agenda while competing with other international crises.
Photo: Dmytro Kuleba at the World Economic Forum (WEF CC BY-NC-SA 2.0).
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